Chart of the day
August
Re-Krafting
04 August 2011
Credit spreads on Kraft Foods widen significantly post-announcement of a split of its snacks and grocery businesses.
 
Focus on the fulcrum
02 August 2011
Italy and its banks were among the underperformers in today's session as investors again focused on eurozone contagion.
 
Return to normal?
01 August 2011
After announcements by the President and Congressional leaders of a negotiated deal, the US CDS curve is no longer inverted.
 
July
Trickle down federalism
28 July 2011
Municipal CDS have been one of the best performing instrument classes this year but risk is rising.
 
Of patent and earnings
27 July 2011
CDS spreads on EK had been widening due to patent concerns but the widening continued on disappointing earnings
 
Ford credit risk better on earnings
26 July 2011
Ford CDS spreads rallied moderately today on earnings results that beat estimates.
 
Here's your sign
25 July 2011
Former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) suggested today that a sign from the markets may help debt ceiling negotiations. Here's your sign.
 
Morgan Stanley beats expectations
21 July 2011
Morgan Stanley CDS tighter today on broader trends and earnings expectations beat.
 
Higher bid, higher leverage
20 July 2011
CDS for Clorox widens again as Icahn raises his bid.
 
Dirty laundry
19 July 2011
Despite intense scrutiny during House of Commons testimony and mixed reviews of the CEO's testimony, credit spreads for News America Inc., tightene...
 
Running with the pack
18 July 2011
Italian CDS spreads reach a record wide despite the passing of an austerity package on Friday and Italian banks passing the stress tests.
 
Gridlock on review
14 July 2011
US CDS reacts moderately to Moody's beginning of US downgrade review.
 
Dynegy's difficulties
13 July 2011
CDS for Dynegy continued to drift wider today as investors track the company following Monday's rating cut by Moody's.
 
Backing the banks
12 July 2011
Rally in European banks ahead of Friday's stress test results is helpful but there was some weakness among Italian banks.
 
Tapestry of concerns
11 July 2011
CDS for US banks widened today amidst negative sentiment and contagion concerns.
 
Portugal Telecom underperforming
08 July 2011
Portugal Telecom is 164bp wider since Moody's downgrade of Portugal but a lot else is going on with this company.
 
Rallying California and Illinois
07 July 2011
California and Illinois municipal CDS catch a rally today despite little in the way of significant news.
 
Raising the bar
06 July 2011
European banks had a more muted reaction than their sovereign cousins today. What that means for upcoming bank stress test results though is fairl...
 
June
Land of 10,000 lakes plus one budget showdown
30 June 2011
With budget negotiations at an apparent impasse and a pending government shutdown for Minnesota, muni CDS spreads for the state widened modestly.
 
Countrynarrow
29 June 2011
Credit spreads for Bank of America tighten following settlement of certain claims related to Countrywide.
 
Chavez's ailing health and investor optimism
28 June 2011
Credit risk for Venezuela is on the decline as mounting speculation about Hugo Chavez's declining health increases.
 
Credit volatility ascendant
27 June 2011
Volatility has been on the increase for liquid, North American corporate credits, both investment grade and high yield.
 
The reign of confusion
24 June 2011
A post-Mubarak Egypt will ultimately take shape but month's after the strongman's ouster, things are still fluid.
 
European financials wider
23 June 2011
European financials were wider today ahead on Greek debt concerns. Investors anxiously await bank stress test results.
 
Devil at the crossroads?
22 June 2011
Muni CDS for California has widened in the past week following Governor Jerry Brown's veto of a budget proposal passed by the legislature and advan...
 
Grind to consensus
21 June 2011
Despite a fresh round of warnings from the rating agencies, US CDS spreads tightened a bit today.
 
Returning to the fold?
20 June 2011
Noticeable but muted reaction in CDS spreads for Italy following Moody's warning.
 
Capital thoughts
17 June 2011
The recent widening in CDS spreads for major US banks have a lot to do with recent speculation about new capital requirements.
 
Olympic records
17 June 2011
Two new records for Greece CDS spreads today.
 
Noonan!
15 June 2011
CDS spreads widen for Anglo Irish Bank after indications that senior unsecured bondholders will have to take a haircut.
 
Lock-step wider on inflation concerns
14 June 2011
CDS for Chinese banks wider on inflation concerns, higher reserve ratios.
 
The area between the curves
13 June 2011
The difference between 1Y and 5Y CDS spreads for Greece will be closely watched for hints of restructuring plans.
 
Smoke on the water, fire in the forest?
10 June 2011
Questions over accounting irregularities, possible downgrades and scrutiny over reverse mergers are factors influencing wider spreads in Sino-Forest
 
Shiller thriller?
09 June 2011
Credit spreads continue to widen for KB Homes. Robert Shiller talks about a scenario where US housing prices could slip for 20 years.
 
Retailers take it on the chin
08 June 2011
US high end retailers took it on the chin today as economic woes weigh further on the minds of investors.
 
Would be acquirer and target
07 June 2011
Perceptions of credit risk shift in International Paper's bid for Temple-Inland.
 
A new Peru?
06 June 2011
CDS spreads for Peru showed volatility today following presidential election results.
 
A crack in the seal?
03 June 2011
After widening 84bp on Wed from S&P and Moody's putting Sealed Air on review for downgrade, spreads continue to drift wider
 
Warning of a warning
03 June 2011
Moody's warns that it may put the US sovereign credit rating on ratings review as early as mid-July.
 
What's bad for the economy is bad for autos
01 June 2011
CDS spreads for both Ford and GM widened out today amid broad weakness in the financial markets due to a flurry of dismal economic data releases in...
 
May
Hard to contain
31 May 2011
TEPCO widened dramatically today following S&P's downgrade action and reports that containment efforts at Fukushima may go into year end.
 
Credit risk for US homebuilders only slightly wider following disappointing pending home sales
27 May 2011
CDS spreads for US homebuilders had only a modest reaction following disappointing US pending sales figures.
 
Law struck down due to lack of sunshine
26 May 2011
Reaction to the striking down of the Wisconsin collective bargaining law was ho-hum in the municipal CDS market.
 
Don't stress?
25 May 2011
Positive headlines in German publication 'Die Zeit' claimed that all German banks are expected to pass the upcoming stress tests helped equities ra...
 
Thinking of cloudy days
24 May 2011
5Y CDS for British Airways is 421bp (+7) today as cancelled flights due to volcanic ash is expected to weigh on revenues Industry analysts believe...
 
Debt ceiling: plot twists
24 May 2011
The CDS curve for US Government took a twist today with the one-year tenor widening significantly, 37bp (+15), as the political plots and twists th...
 
Collective Responsibility on a Big Spill
22 May 2011

5Y CDS for BP rallied 4bp to 82bp today following reports that the company reached an agreement with MOEX Offshore, which was a 10% partner in the Macondo oil well, to

 
Obama Wants to Turn Back Clock
19 May 2011
Five year CDS spreads for Israel rallied in line with many other CEEMEA sovereigns today but that was before President Obama's announcement of a significant policy shift,
 
Cover on the Ceiling
18 May 2011
CDS for the US government widened by 4bp, two days after the US began to bump against its debt ceiling. The withdrawal of one of the members of the Gang of Six is a p...
 
Another Tough Quarter
17 May 2011
5Y CDS on Hewlett Packard was 5.5% wider today following disappointing earnings results and lower guidance. In a sign of of just how challenging things may be, a leak...
 
Triple Downgrade of the Paper
16 May 2011
R.R. Donnelly was downgraded a notch by each of the three major rating agencies leaving the credit at the highest non-investment grade rating at each. CDS widened by...
 
Opaque Ceiling and Treasury Tactics
13 May 2011
Despite the anticipation of hitting the US debt ceiling on Monday, so far CDS for the US government has remained stable. Recent polls showing that a majority of Ameri...
 
Go Ahead, Double the Dividend
11 May 2011
5Y CDS for Macy's continued its rally amidst strong earnings. The company even doubled its dividened. Moody's also applauded the company's targets on key credit met...
 
Rally and Upgrade
10 May 2011
Senior 5Y CDS for Amkor Technology has rallied 42 bp since the start of May. The credit rallied 8 bp thus far today following S&P's one-notch upgrade to BB. The outl...
 
Release the Drachma?
06 May 2011
A late report in German magazine Spiegel indicated that the Greek government is cotemplating an exit from the euro currency. CDS spreads for Greece widened to record...
 
The Wrong Prescription?
05 May 2011
Despite the Caremark franchise continuing to drag on the company's overall performance, management indicated that a spin-off was not in the works. 5Y CDS for CVS Care...
 
Ford and GM CDS Wider Post-Auto Sales Figures
03 May 2011
CDS spreads for both automakers was wider following the release of auto sales figures today. This happened despite GM significantly beating expectations and Ford resu...
 
April
A Lesson in Passing Along Costs
29 April 2011
CDS for Goodyear Tire & Rubber posted a strong rally today following reporting of its first quarter results. The company reported record sales. In a theme consistent...
 
Credit Risk Perspective: Exelon-Constellation Deal
28 April 2011
CDS for Constellation Energy had a firm rally today following the acquisition announcement by Exelon Corp whereas Exelon was unchanged. The deal is sizable and reflec...
 
Barrick Gold Trumps Bid to Potential Downgrade
26 April 2011
Barrick Gold's C$7.3 bln bid for Equinox Minerals trumps that of Minmetals Resources but the move also has rating agencies reassessing the company's risk profile.
 
All Aboard!
20 April 2011
5Y CDS for Union Pacific tightened on 1Q earnings results that came in slightly below analyst expectations; shares sold off slightly. While disappointing, the earning...
 
Sprint Nextel and ClearWire Clear Things Up
19 April 2011
The two companies reached a price settlement for the former to use the latter's 4G network. 5Y CDS spreads tightened moderately for Sprint Nextel but challenges remai...
 
Negative Outlook for US Spills Into Munis
18 April 2011
S&P's move to put the US government on negative outlook caused not only a widening of credit spreads for the US but also for municipal credits as well.
 
One Jig Away from High Yield
15 April 2011
CDS for Ireland widened back out by 25 bp today. Moody's downgraded the sovereign by two notches to leave it one step above 'junk' and left the outlook negative.
 
Recall is Job 1
14 April 2011
Ford CDS was wider today following an expansion of a recall of its popular F-150 trucks. The original recall affected roughly 144,000 vehicles. Today's expanded reca...
 
Alcoa CDS Unchanged Following Debt Sale
13 April 2011
Alcoa's $1 billion debt sale did not cause CDS to trade wider following the widening seen the other day as a result of concerning earnings results but the change in co...
 
Dancing with the One…Which One?
12 April 2011
5Y CDS for BP widened by 6 bp today as the company's Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, announced plans to seek as much as $10 billion in damages for an alleged breach of...
 
First Round Jitters
11 April 2011
Sunday's preliminary election results in Peru has sparked a bit of concern after left-leaning candidate Ollanta Humala had a stronger than expected showing.
 
Carry On My Wayward Son
08 April 2011
The Markit MCDX is tighter week over week despite a looming federal government shutdown and Moody's placement of Kansas on outlook negative. Both events have the pote...
 
Moody's Warns of Potential Toyota Downgrade
06 April 2011
There was no reaction today in the 5Y CDS for Toyota even as Moody's warned of a potential downgrade due to the financial impact from the earthquake in Japan. Moody's...
 
Technical Convergence
05 April 2011
CDS for National Semiconductor rallied today while Texas Instruments ticked a modest bit wider following yesterday's acquisition announcement. S&P ratings actions on...
 
Unwavering
04 April 2011
There were a lot of headlines today regarding US debt. Perhaps the most sobering came from a report by the IMF advocating that the US increase its taxes by 35% and cu...
 
March
Sakking the Revolver
30 March 2011
CDS for Saks Incorporated are tighter this morning following the company's amendment of its revolving credit facility in what is essentially is an opportunistic refina...
 
Risk Containment?
29 March 2011
Increasing press reports speculating about the possible nationalization of TEPCO and the Japanese government assuming full liability for the Fukushima disaster has TEP...
 
Peru's Flirtation With Socialism
28 March 2011
Investors reacted with some concern today as the leftist candidate took the lead in polls for the April 10th election.
 
Best Buy, Hold or Sell?
24 March 2011
5Y CDS for Best Buy was wider today despite the company's share prices trading higher early in today's session. While 4Q profit came in higher than expected, the resu...
 
US Homebuilders Wider After Disappointing New Homes Sales
23 March 2011
US homebuilders were generally 5-15 bp wider on disappointing new housing sales, a record low.
 
Muni CDS Touch Wider on Primary Issuance
22 March 2011
As the primary market for municipal bonds shows signs of picking back up, investors approach the market cautiously. Municipal bond prices were a tad weaker and munici...
 
Sprint or Slow 'N' Steady Gait
21 March 2011
While the sizable AT&T and T-Mobile deal signaled a potentially earnest start of M&A activity with generally bullish implications for the market, it poses problems for...
 
Joint Intervention
18 March 2011
Has market volatility from the situation in Japan peaked? Joint intervention by the G7 along with progress on restoring power to the nuclear facility will certainly h...
 
Colombia Slightly Tighter on Upgrade
17 March 2011
5Y CDS for Colombia rallied by 4 bp today following yesterday's one-notch upgrade of the sovereign's foreign currency credit rating to investment grade by S&P.
 
Effectively Out of Control
16 March 2011
CDS spreads for Tokyo Electric Power Co have seen tremendous volatility intraday as the markets follow events in Japan. Based on comments from the EU's energy chief,...
 
Bahrain Wider, Ratings Downgrade Follows
15 March 2011
5Y CDS for Bahrain widened to 360 bp early in the session on concern of the potential for escalating violence with the introduction of foreign troops. After the Londo...
 
The Worst…Since World War II
14 March 2011
CDS for Tokyo Electric Power Co widened out by almost 200 bp today in reaction to the devastation in Japan and concerns over the status of nuclear reactors there. A p...
 
Another Supply Shock?
11 March 2011
CDS for Saudia Arabia was only 5 bp wider today despite reports of increased tensions in the country. The earthquake in Japan has helped keep a lid on oil prices in t...
 
Moving the Previous Question
10 March 2011
CDS for Wisconsin was mildly tighter on a day when other single name muni CDS and the index was slightly wider following yesterday's Senate passage of a bill designed...
 
Telecombination?
09 March 2011
Rumors of a possible combination of US operations between Sprint Nextel and Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA unit have surfaced again helping drive a rally in CDS sprea...
 
One and a Half Men
08 March 2011
The firing of Charlie Sheen from the top prime-time TV sitcom 'Two and a Half Men' had little to no impact on CDS spreads for CBS or Time Warner Inc. (parent of Warner...
 
The Iberian Delta
07 March 2011
Increasingly the market is pricing in the prospect of a bailout package for Portugal. This can be seen in the delta between the CDS spreads of Portugal and Spain.
 
Re-raq for Iraq
03 March 2011
Iraqi sovereign bonds have weakened steadily in the last month or so as protests in the nation have intensified. Today's resignation of Baghdad's mayor weakens sentim...
 
Credit Rally for Dillard's Continues
02 March 2011
Dillard's credit profile continues to improve following yesterday's announcement of 4Q earnings results. CDS for the company tightened 15 bp in early trading today.
 
Rough Day for Goldman Sachs
01 March 2011
The day featured some fairly negative headlines for Goldman Sachs. First, there was the disclosure of $3.4 billion in litigation risk. Then in an unrelated matter, a...
 
February
Vigorous Denial of Default
28 February 2011
Bank debt for the TXU deal rallied a bit on Friday and today on reports that Aurelius Capital Management alleged the company is in default. The senior unsecured debt...
 
Refuelers Go to Boeing
25 February 2011
Boeing winning the US Air Force contract for airborne refueling tankers helped tighten CDS spreads for the company while EADS remained flat.
 
Earnings and Exposure
24 February 2011
While the markets were volatile today in response to ongoing developments in Libya, Repsol was only slightly wider today. The company's earning results were slightly...
 
Impasse in Madison
23 February 2011
The legislative stalemate in Madison, Wisconsin over "right to work" provisions could have broad implications for municipal debt markets. So far though, it is hard to...
 
Will Another Suitor Come Calling?
22 February 2011
Icahn's failed bid for Dynegy and resulting management shakeup has sent the company's CDS spreads wider.
 
As Violence Rises So Does Political Risk
18 February 2011
Bahrain CDS widened past 300 bp today as the violence against protesters escalated despite the Crown Prince's pleas for calm and order.
 
CDS for Commerzbank Slightly Wider
17 February 2011
Moody's announcement for a potential downgrade of Commerzbank was widely anticipated and the CDS market widened only mildly. A combination of external and credit spec...
 
Strong Earnings and Lower Credit Risk for Dell
16 February 2011
Earnings results for Dell after the closing bell yesterday were well above expectations prompting a rally in the company's equity and credit.
 
Day of Rage and Risk
15 February 2011
As protests in Bahrain intensify and the largest Shiite opposition bloc in parliament suspends its membership, the markets reflect the increased risk to investors.
 
What Are the Chances of BABs Coming Back?
14 February 2011
Battle lines over the US budget are being drawn as details of the President's plan emerge. It includes a permanent renewal of the Build America Bond program, a progra...
 
Expedia CDS Widens on Disappointing Earnings
11 February 2011
Expedia CDS widened by 15 bp today following disappointing earnings results and an increased risk profile for an aggressive investment in marketing and technology.
 
Witnessing History Unfold? Almost There?
10 February 2011
Egyptian CDS was volatile today as first the market contended with the rumor that Saudia Arabia's king passed away. Unsubstantiated and with strong denials issued by...
 
Can't Gloss Over Earnings
09 February 2011
CDS for Avon Products widened by 12 bp in trading today following yesterday's disappointing earnings results.
 
CDS for McClatchy Wider Following Disappointing Earnings
08 February 2011
CDS for McClatchy widened out by more than 40 bp today following disappointing earnings. Continued pressure on ad and circulation revenues was the culprit.
 
Chesapeake Energy Lowers Credit Risk Through Asset Sale
07 February 2011
CDS for Cheasapeake Energy tightened by over 50 bp today on the planned sales of certain assets. The proceeds will be used primarily to pay down debt
 
On the Wings of Food Inflation
04 February 2011
Tyson Foods dramatically beat expectations in its 1Q earnings with proft surging 86% higher year over year. Rising meat prices, strong demand and productivity gains...
 
Nordstrom Rallies on Upgrade
03 February 2011
Nordstrom 5Y CDS rallies following S&P's one notch upgrade of the credit to 'A-'
 
Ford Motor Credit Drives By with Bond Issue
02 February 2011
Ford Motor Credit CDS was mariginally tighter today on reports of a possible bond offering but the credit has rallied significantly throughout last year as Ford had on...
 
Tighter for Brown as Earnings Suggest Recovery
01 February 2011
5Y CDS for UPS rallied on better than expected earnings and higher guidance. Results suggest economic recovery is underway.
 
January
Risk in Israel
31 January 2011
With the escalation of protests in Egypt having an impact on the sovereign's CDS spreads, it is important to remember that there is risk for Israel as well.
 
Ford Tougher?
28 January 2011
While 2010 was one of the most profitable on record for Ford and CDS spreads have tightened considerably since the credit crisis, rising material and potentially risin...
 
Caterpillar Earnings Suggests Global Recovery
27 January 2011
Strong orders help boost Caterpillar 4Q revenues significantly above expectations, suggesting a broad global economic recovery.
 
Market Hieroglyphics Reflect Instability
26 January 2011
CDS for Egypt continued to widen today following reports of more protests and mass arrests. Since the end of 2010, CDS has widened over 100 bp.
 
Rise in Coal Prices Fuels Earnings
25 January 2011
4Q profits more than doubled for Peabody Energy on rising coal prices. The rise in prices should buffer the company from missed shipments due to flooding that is impa...
 
Drilling for Earnings
24 January 2011
Fourth quarter profit for Halliburton more than doubled on reinvigorated drilling activity, particularly in North America. The credit rallied today by 2 bp in intrada...
 
Bring Good Things to Tight
21 January 2011
GE's 4Q earnings results were better than expected and is a good portent for a broader economic recovery. The results helped rally the US equity markets today and CDS...
 
Where's the Beef (Going)?
20 January 2011
CDS for Wendy's rallied today, tightening by 30 bp on reports that the company is considering selling its Arby's chain of restaurants.
 
Tuning in Tunisia
19 January 2011
CDS for Tunisia's Central Bank widened significantly on the ouster of former President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali but had a more muted reaction following Moody's downgrad...
 
To the Earnings Cloud
18 January 2011
CDS for IBM rallied following better than expected earnings from Big Blue.
 
Markit MCDX Widens Due to Weakness in Muni Cash Markets
14 January 2011
Weakness in the muni cash bond markets, in both the primary and secondary, leads the Markit MCDX wider. Even if there is broad disagreement about the prospect for mun...
 
A Veiled Threat from the Rating Agencies?
13 January 2011
A couple of the major rating agencies warned of a potential negative outlook (or worse) for the US if the government cannot reign in spending. But there was little or...
 
Slicing Up the Pie and Selling What's Left: Sara Lee
12 January 2011
CDS for Sara Lee has been moving wider in recent sessions on LBO takeover speculation. The company has been paring down assets since last year to concentrate on its c...
 
The Apple of Verizon's Eye
11 January 2011
The long awaited announcement is here. Verizon will be offering the iPhone to its customers starting in February, thereby eliminating the exclusivity that AT&T has en...
 
A Different Leak
10 January 2011
CDS for BP bucked the recent trend and widened today due to a leak in the Trans Alaska pipeline forcing a shutdown over the weekend.
 
Agreement in the Land of Lincoln
07 January 2011
Reports of a budget agreement being reached days before the session deadline helped Illinois CDS rally, reversing course from a test of last year's wide.
 
Three Renault Execs Try to Outdo WikiLeaks?
06 January 2011
Three senior executives of Renault have been suspended in an apparent case of industrial espionage. The executives are alleged to have leaked important information re...
 
State of the States
05 January 2011
For state legislatures it is budget season, for governors it is time for state of the state addresses. Muni market participants are paying attention to the tough talk...
 
Strong US Auto Sales Results: Good Portent for the Economy and Credit
04 January 2011
CDS spreads rallied for Ford and GM on better than expected Dec auto sales figures.
 
Chart of the day
December
Investment Grade Corporate Credits Rally Following Initial Jobless Claims Numbers
30 December 2010
The Markit CDX NA IG index was slightly tighter on thin volumes today following a reduction of US initial jobless claims numbers. The number came in at levels not see...
 
Climb in Crude
29 December 2010
The price of crude oil has been climbing in recent weeks and is being noticed at the gas pumps by consumers that were hoping for some relief following their holiday sp...
 
Shopping With or Without Confidence
28 December 2010
US consumer confidence numbers declined for December despite reports of strong showings by many retailers this holiday season. There was little reaction for the retai...
 
Too Sail to Fail?
21 December 2010
The plight of Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group (aka Vinashin), a state-run shipbuilder, has caused CDS spreads for Vietnam to widen in recent sessions. Moody's dow...
 
Austerity, Not Bird, is the Word
20 December 2010
Merriam-Webster's dictionary today announced that 'austerity' was the 2010 Word of the Year. The dictionary publisher based its decision on the frequency of word sear...
 
Ol' MiLLIe, She Is More Than She Used to Be
17 December 2010
The Markit iBoxx USD Leveraged Loans Index or "MiLLIe" has exceeded a 10% year to date total return. That is a relatively good return for leveraged loans investors by...
 
The Modern Chesapeake Affair
16 December 2010
The states are two of eight that have a 'AAA' rating from all three of the major rating agencies. Budget shortfalls and unfunded liabilities are starting to weigh on...
 
Termino Plana
15 December 2010
Moody's move to place Spain's 'Aa1' ratings on review for possible downgrade sent CDS spreads modestly wider early in the session but finished flat on the day. The an...
 
Same Old Prose
14 December 2010
FOMC announcements are closely watched, analyzed and dissected over and over again for any hint of policy changes, major or nuanced. However, with no change in rates...
 
The Future of Deep Water Oil
13 December 2010
GE's outlook for the future of the deep water oil industry is quite positive despite possible regulatory changes coming to the industry in the wake of the Gulf of Mexi...
 
Valeo Affirmed
10 December 2010
CDS for Valeo rallied by 10 bps today after Moody's affirmation of the company's credit rating and being put on outlook 'positive' late yesterday.
 
Three Notches, Only a Little Wider
09 December 2010
Fitch downgraded Ireland by three notches today but market reaction to the news was moderate.
 
One Bourbon, No Golf, No Home
08 December 2010
Fortune Brands today indicated that it would spin-off its home and security business and the remainder of its golf business to focus solely on its liquor business. Ji...
 
Three Basis Points Cheers for Compromise
07 December 2010
Credit markets and equities have rallied in reaction to the compromise reached by Congressional Republicans and President Barack Obama regarding an extension of Bush-e...
 
Hungary Downgraded by Moody's
06 December 2010
Hungary CDs tested last week's wides in early trading after Moody's downgraded the country's debt by two notches. While the new rating is still investment grade, the...
 
Talking with One Hand, Buying with the Other
03 December 2010
Despite being mum about a bond buying program in yesterday's announcement, the ECB has been active in the market buying Portuguese and Irish bonds according to traders...
 
QE and That Other Central Bank
02 December 2010
While attention today was focused on the announcements from the ECB, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard indicated in a speech that the Fed remai...
 
Carrefour: Squeeze on Profits
01 December 2010
Carrefour lowered its year end profit target today due to lower forecasts for activity in Southern Europe and a substantial increase over its previous estimate for a o...
 
November
From Athens All the Way to Brussels?
30 November 2010
Belgium CDS was over 200 bps for the first time, setting a new record wide. Investors are divided over the extent to which Belgium's credit picture resembles that of...
 
Trans-Iberia Express
29 November 2010
CDS on Portugal and Spain hit record wides today as investors became concerned that the two Iberian countries would be next in line for requiring a bailout package....
 
Spoiled Kimchi
23 November 2010
Kimchi is a spicy pickled cabbage dish that accompanies most Korean meals. It is quite the delicacy. It also has a strong, distinctive odor particularly if it spoils...
 
Austerity and Bailouts, Unlike Polar Bears, Are Not Cuddly or Popular
22 November 2010
Despite formal acknowledgement over the weekend of an aid package being in the works for Ireland, CDS on Ireland was 25-30 bps wider in late trading from Friday's clos...
 
No Hurrah for Harrah's
19 November 2010
The price of the company's term loan B-2 moved lower today, by as much as a point earlier in the day, following the company's announcement that it was pulling its IPO...
 
Bring on Black Friday: 3Q Profit on Target
17 November 2010
CDS and equity on Target rallied today on strong third quarter earnings results and strong sector performance. Strong performance in Target's credit card business sug...
 
Sprinting Wider to the Clearwire
16 November 2010
Sprint Next Corp CDS is wider again today, over 10 bps, following yesterday's announcement by Moody's that the company was put on watch negative due to concerns that i...
 
Caterpillar Inc: Crawling Back Wider
15 November 2010
CDS levels for Caterpillar were about 5 bps wider in early trading following the announcement that the company would acquire Bucyrus International in a transaction val...
 
Get to the Chopper!
12 November 2010
The famous line: "Get to the Chopper!", uttered by Arnold Schwarzenegger in the movie "Predator" could easily have been uttered again today as Gov. Schwarzenegger call...
 
Too Ambitious?
11 November 2010
Boeing CDS may widen in tomorrow's session on follow through on delays with the 787 Dreamliner program. US fixed income markets were on holiday today. The stock was...
 
Capital Inflows and Bond Issuance
10 November 2010
South Korea continues to see strong economic growth and capital inflows leading to recent gains in the won against the dollar and euro. The longer end of the CDS curv...
 
Jumping the Candlesticks to Default: Ambac
09 November 2010
After skipping an interest payment last week as part of an effort to encourage debt holders to agree to a pre-packaged bankruptcy agreement, Ambac filed for Ch. 11 ban...
 
Rising Expectations for Newly Elected Republican Governors?
08 November 2010
Republican candidates campaigned heavily on the theme of making large spending cuts, something that many state governors and legislatures have find challenging. Munic...
 
Another Record Wide
04 November 2010
Despite central bank purchases of Irish debt, credit markets remain concerned about the sustainability of Ireland's fiscal situation. The latest efforts at making sig...
 
QE2.5 By the Numbers, QE2 By the Market
03 November 2010
The FOMC statement stated that the Federal Reserve would purchase up to $600 bln in treasuries as part of QE2, exceeding the upper end of the predicted range ($300-$50...
 
Higher Oil Prices But Higher Spill Charges
02 November 2010
BP announced that 3Q net profits were down significantly year over year due to higher than expected charges related to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Higher oil prices...
 
A Sitting Duck…Ambac
01 November 2010
Ambac Financial is skipping a scheduled $2.8 million payment as part of a "sitting duck" strategy to encourage creditors to accept its plans for a prepack bankruptcy f...
 
October
Cement Shoes Come In Pairs
29 October 2010
Tthose expecting a significant reaction in BP CDS today must surely be disappointed. However, Halliburton CDS continued to widen. Pairs traders on these credits had...
 
Smoking Cement?
28 October 2010
News reports indicate that the presidential commission investigating the Gulf of Mexico oil spill has learned that Halliburton and BP may have known about certain flaw...
 
Paying Debts and Respects
27 October 2010
Argentinian ex-president Nestor Kirchner passed away earlier today. He was known for being a tough negotiator, a reputation he solidified through his handling of a de...
 
LBO Rumor Whipsaw
26 October 2010
As Markit analyst, Gavan Nolan, reported in his Intraday alert today. Recent activity in the CDS for Cardinal Health and McKesson saw significant widening in the past...
 
Lights Coming Back on for Housing?
25 October 2010
Used home sales numbers in the US for September came out much better than expected. CDS spreads on US homebuilders tightened on this as well as other signs of activit...
 
Lights Coming Back on for Housing?
25 October 2010
Used home sales numbers in the US for September came out much better than expected. CDS spreads on US homebuilders tightened on this as well as other signs of activit...
 
Eli Lilly: Pipeline vs Earnings
22 October 2010
Despite positive earnings results this week, CDS for Eli Lilly widened on concerns of expiring patents and a lack of a robust pipeline. The patent for Zyprexa is expe...
 
Caterpillar Brings Earnings
21 October 2010
Markets found positive sentiment today through better than expected earnings results, at least temporarily ignoring the uncertainty related to US mortgage lending prac...
 
Tax Refund Loans: Valued Service, Predatory Lending or Extinct?
20 October 2010
CDS on H&R Block continued to drift wider this week following last week's filing of a lawsuit against HSBC. H&R Block maintains that HSBC is in breach of contract for...
 
Buying Shares of Coke from the World…and Keeping Them in the Company
19 October 2010
Coca-Cola announced today that it intended to buy back $2 billion worth of shares before year end. Third quarter earnings results were also positive with an 8.4% prof...
 
Pick Your Poison
18 October 2010
CDS on JC Penny was 10 basis points tighter in early trading. The company announced a poison pill provision to make it more difficult to acquire the company. Activis...
 
Smooth Criminals
15 October 2010
A criminal syndicate has been stealing fuel from the Buzwagi mine of African Barrick Gold. A widespread employee suspension related to the incident has caused gold ou...
 
This Is Not the American Dream
14 October 2010
The markets became more focused on "Foreclosuregate" today as it became clear that state attorneys general were preparing to launch their own investigations into the i...
 
This Is Not the American Dream -- Part II
14 October 2010
Market reaction to the foreclosure moratorium reached into the homebuilding and mortgage insurance industry as well.
 
Lifting the Moratorium
12 October 2010
Despite the announcement that the US government was lifting the moratorium on deepwater drilling. Equity shares were down in London for BP and CDS levels were close t...
 
Flight to Yield
11 October 2010
Correlation trends of various asset classes to the S&P 500 show significant change since the "flight to quality" behavior exhibited in May and June. The current corre...
 
A Long Thaw
08 October 2010
The European sovereign market was generally tighter today on improved risk appetite despite the downgrades of Ireland and its banks. After the close, Bloomberg News r...
 
No Tunnel for You!
07 October 2010
Wire reports speculate that Governor Chris Christie, who campaigned aggressively on the need for a more balanced budget, may be the latest statesman to bring forth an...
 
Money Soc(k)?
06 October 2010
CDS for Societe Generale was tighter in large part due to improved market tone in London trading but also partially due to rumors that the bank may be nearing some sor...
 
My Right Hand
05 October 2010
Hungarian Prime Minister Okban reiterated his confidence in his finance minister and referred to him as "My Right Hand" late in the trading session today after reports...
 
Harrisburg, PA: Act 47 Take 20
01 October 2010
Harrisburg, PA may be the 20th Pennsylvania municipality to join Act 47, a state sponsored program to help financially troubled municipalities in the state. CDS for P...
 
September
Certainty Yields Some Relief
30 September 2010
Yields on Ireland government bonds in the Markit iBoxx EUR Ireland index were tighter today on confirmation of bailout numbers for Anglo Irish bank. The official stat...
 
Credit Distinction
29 September 2010
CDS levels on Anglo Irish's senior and subordinated continued to diverge as the markets price more certainty into a restructuring for the subordinated debt.
 
Not A Gulf Apart
28 September 2010
CDS widening on BP due to the oil spill was one of the year's biggest stories. Today it widened by 5 basis points on a reported $2-3 billion bond float to come to mar...
 
The Way You LUV Airtran
27 September 2010
Southwest Airlines is to acquire Airtran in a $1.4 billion cash and stock deal in a move that signals further consolidation among low cost air carriers. The CDS curve...
 
Fueling for Scale
24 September 2010
Petrobras conducted the world's biggest share sale with a $68 billion offering. The offering has tremendous implications for trading on the Bovespa exchange as well a...
 
Blockbuster Chartbuster
23 September 2010
The much anticipated bankruptcy filing for Blockbuster came earlier today. Bond price reaction was mild, only a point lower for the 11.75% of Sep 2015 issue. The det...
 
You Can Call It a Comeback
22 September 2010
Leveraged loan returns gave back much of the year's earlier gains in May and June due to contagion concerns from European sovereign risk. Recently strong primary mark...
 
Rebuilding Season
21 September 2010
CDS markets seem unconvinced with positive housing starts data as US homebuilders were unchanged to slightly wider on the day
 
Golden Arch
20 September 2010
Gold makes a new high today despite consensus among Fed watchers that believe the likelihood for further quantitative easing at tomorrow's meeting is small.
 
Eire Wider
17 September 2010
Ireland CDS widened significantly today on rumors of a possible EU/IMF intervention should bank losses continue to worsen.
 
Yuan a Dance?
16 September 2010
The yen is holding weak against the yuan following the intervention from Bank of Japan. BOJ made the move in an effort to avoid deflation and to try to kick start the...
 
WTO to Boeing, Come in Boeing
15 September 2010
A preliminary ruling from the WTO criticizes certain funds from NASA and the US Department of Defense to Boeing as anti-competitive subsidies. Boeing CDS is a little...
 
I'll Gladly Pay You Today for a Harrisburg on Wednesday
14 September 2010
Despite Harrisburg's announcement that it intended to skip a scheduled September 15th payment on its general obligation debt, it seems that the city will make the paym...
 
Go OJ! Go!
13 September 2010
Like the old Hertz commercials with OJ hurdling over lounge seats at the airport, Hertz raised its bid for Dollar Thrifty to $50/share or $1.56 billion vs Avis' last o...
 
Dilutive and Less Risky
10 September 2010
Shares for Deutsche Bank dropped significantly today as rumors of a potential €9 billion issuance of new equity was dilutive. CDS tightened by 7 bps today as the addi...
 
Calpine Corporation
09 September 2010
Equity and loan prices for Calpine Corporation have been on a rally lately following some progress on a debt reduction campaign and positive comments in a recent Barro...
 
Spilling the Blame
08 September 2010
BP announced results of its study into the Deepwater oil rig explosion. It concludes that there was no single cause for the explosion and that multiple parties are re...
 
Stress Anew?
07 September 2010
Renewed focus on European bank stress test results plus changing of the guard in the executive ranks spurs moderate widening of CDS spreads for Barclays and to a lesse...
 
Rally in Corporates Following Jobs Data
03 September 2010
US Investment grade corporates rallied immediately following the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report according to data from Markit Intraday
 
Hurricane Approaching North Carolina
02 September 2010
Municipal CDS on North Carolina has been widening recently like some of the other credits due to concerns over a slowdown in economic growth. However, North Carolina...
 
A Flagstone on the Keystone
01 September 2010
Harrisburg, PA announced yesterday its intention to default on an upcoming payment on its general obligation debt. While muni CDS referencing the city does not trade,...
 
August
Attention Shoppers
31 August 2010
Rumors of a possible takeover bid from private equity firms sent equity on Saks higher but CDS wider.
 
Motion Denied
30 August 2010
Efforts to set aside a $677 million jury verdict against Skilled Healthcare Group suffered a blow late Friday when a judge denied a motion for mistrial due to juror mi...
 
Reticent Support
27 August 2010
The markets found some support today in what seemed to be reticent support from the Fed's comments signaling that they would take action to bolster the economy and the...
 
Downgrade Risk
26 August 2010
Rating agencies have recently begun warning that the US and other major Western governments face an increasing downgrade risk over deficit concerns.
 
Wider for Irish Banks
25 August 2010
Yesterday S&P downgraded Ireland's rating by a notch to AA- citing the increasing cost of supporting its financial sector. Five year protection on Irish bank CDS cont...
 
For Sale by Owner et al.
24 August 2010
CDS on US homebuilders are significantly wider following the National Association of Realtors report on existing-home sales.
 
Mmm...Mmm..Good Deal?
23 August 2010
Campbell Soup Co 5Y CDS is at 43 bps ( 4) following reports that the company is looking to buy United Biscuits' biscuit-making operations in a 1.5 billion pound breaku...
 
Portugese Banks Wider
20 August 2010
Portugese Bank CDS were wider today on no specific news and despite friendly comments from the ECB suggesting that they would keep current monetary policy stable rathe...
 
California Dreamin'
19 August 2010
State workers will have a little more time on their hands it seems following Wednesday's ruling by the California Supreme Court that will allow "Furlough Fridays" to r...
 
"The First State"
18 August 2010
New Jersey became the first state today to ever be charged by the SEC for violation of federal securities law. The charges are related to certain municipal bond offer...
 
Shop 'til You Drop
17 August 2010
Profit increases for retailers Walmart and Home Depot sent their equity prices higher while the CDS were only a tad tighter. Consumers remain cautious and future sale...
 
The PIIGS in Summer
16 August 2010
Renewed focus on high beta European sovereigns, particularly Ireland and its banking sector today. Ireland CDS exceeded 300 bps for the first time since March 2009.
 
High Energy Buyout
13 August 2010
Private equity firm, Blackstone Group, is looking to acquire Dynegy in one of the biggest leveraged buyout deals of the year. The current deal represents a 62% premiu...
 
Stress Resurgent?
12 August 2010
CDS on Irish banks are about 20 bps wider on the day over renewed concerns about losses on bad loans, higher debt costs and the possible need for more capital aid.
 
Awaiting Redemption
11 August 2010
Toys R Us Term Loan moves close to par upon announcement of $1 bln in new secured financing to pay down existing loans.
 
Combined Power
10 August 2010
Five year CDS spreads on International Power and GDF Suez converge as they combine certain assets in an effort to compete more effectively in emerging markets and lowe...
 
Rising Wheat Prices but Stable in Food Producers
09 August 2010
Credit risk among food producers has been largely stable despite the recent run up in wheat prices and the announcement last week of a Russian ban on wheat exports. P...
 
US Treasury Prices Rose
06 August 2010
Investors bid up US Treasuries in taking a more conservative approach to their portfolios after disappointing US nonfarm payroll numbers came out in the morning. The...
 
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