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Week ahead economic calendar [02-06 Jan]: PMIs provide kick-start to 2012 economic calendar
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| 30 December 2011 |
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| The New Year starts with a week crammed full of economic data releases, including manufacturing and service sector PMIs from around the world and US non-farm payrolls. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [26 – 30 Dec]: A quiet closing week to 2011 rounds off with manufacturing PMIs
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| 23 December 2011 |
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| An otherwise quiet week for economic data ends with a small flurry of manufacturing PMI releases. Following the earlier flash PMI releases for the Eurozone and China, which picked up in both cases but nevertheless signalled ongoing weakness, manufacturing PMIs are published for Japan, China (final) and Russia, with the Chicago PMI also adding some insight into US business conditions. |
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UK grows more than expected in Q3, but outlook remains one of stagnation
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| 22 December 2011 |
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| The latest government data showed the UK grew by 0.6% in the three months to September, up from the Office for National Statistics' previous estimate of 0.5%. However, the expansion largely reflected a bounce-back from temporary weakness in the second quarter, which had been caused by the extra bank holiday and disruptions to business globally due to the Japanese earthquake. In fact, the second quarter was even worse than previously thought, with meagre growth of 0.1% revised down to zero. |
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US growth revised down for third quarter, but uplift expected for year-end
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| 22 December 2011 |
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| US economic growth for the third quarter has been revised down from an annualised rate of 2.0% to 1.8% (or 0.45% on a quarterly basis). The rate still picked up from 1.3% in the second quarter, but growth in the three months to June had been temporarily hit by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted global supply chains. The lack of a significant bounce-back from that weakness is disappointing. However, there are growing signs of the US economy showing some resilience in the face of the Eurozone’s financial crisis and evidence of weakness in many other developed and emerging countries. |
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Italian recession looms as economy contracts in third quarter
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| 21 December 2011 |
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| Long-awaited third quarter Italian national accounts data showed a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction in gross domestic product (GDP). This was the first decline since the final three months of 2010 and stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.1% fall. These official figures tally with earlier released PMI data – based on a weighted summation of the
manufacturing output and services activity indices – from Markit, which showed output contracting throughout the third quarter of 2011. Composite PMI data for October and November suggest that Italian GDP will have contracted for a second successive quarter in Q4, and therefore entered Italy into technical recession for the second time in just over three years. |
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Germany: IFO survey confirms upturn in PMI™, but weakness prevails
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| 20 December 2011 |
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| The December IFO survey confirmed the surprise upturn that we saw in our flash German PMI, suggesting that the Eurozone’s largest member state is showing some resilience in the face of the region’s sovereign debt crisis. |
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UK household finances deteriorate at sharper pace amid survey-record rise in debt and fastest fall in income since March 2009
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| 19 December 2011 |
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| December data pointed to a sharp and accelerated squeeze on household finances. The headline Markit Household Finance Index (HFI) dropped from 34.6 in November to 34.3, its lowest level for four months. This was also the second-weakest reading since the survey began in February 2009. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [19 – 23 Dec]: European data to highlight growing recession risk
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| 16 December 2011 |
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| The coming week sees the publication of the Bank of England monetary policy meeting minutes, business and consumer sentiment surveys, US housing market data plus a raft of third quarter GDP estimates. |
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Eurozone sees worst quarter for 2½ years despite rate of decline easing in December
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| 15 December 2011 |
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| The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled contraction for the fourth successive month in December, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. However, the index rose from 47.0 in November to 47.9, indicating an easing in the rate of decline for the second month in a row and the smallest fall in output for three months. |
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China: Price pressures fade as downturn continues in December
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| 15 December 2011 |
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| The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China, compiled by Markit, rose from 47.7 in November to 49.0 in December, according to preliminary ‘flash’ data based on 85% of normal monthly replies. The sub-50 reading signalled a deterioration of manufacturing business conditions for the second month running and for the fifth time in the past six months, although the upturn in the index signalled that the rate of deterioration moderated compared to November. |
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UK inflation easing gains traction with steep falls likely in early 2012
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| 13 December 2011 |
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| The much anticipated easing in UK inflation appears to be gaining traction. Inflation fell for the second month running in November, dropping from 5.0% in October to a three-month low of 4.8%. Supermarket prices wars, lower petrol costs, falling food prices and retailer discounts for winter clothing lines that struggled to sell in November's warm weather all contributed to the easing. |
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Global economy limps along in November
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| 9 December 2011 |
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| November’s PMI surveys signalled a slight upturn in the pace of global economic growth. However, the data still indicate that the annual rate of increase remained lacklustre as the Eurozone continued to contract and many other developed and emerging countries saw only weak growth. The JPMorgan Global PMI rose to 52.0 from the post-recession low of 51.3 seen in October. The survey-based indicator is roughly consistent with worldwide gross domestic product expanding at an annual rate of 1.5%, down from 2.0% in the second and third quarters and well below the peak of 4.1% seen in the third quarter of last year (according to official GDP data). |
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Week ahead economic calendar [12 – 16 Dec]: PMI surveys to provide first insight into December business conditions
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| 9 December 2011 |
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| Highlights of the week include flash PMI surveys for the Eurozone and China, inflation data for the US, UK and Eurozone, plus the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setters’ monthly meeting. Early ‘flash’ PMI survey data for Eurozone manufacturing and services, including a breakdown for core countries Germany and France are released on Thursday soon after Markit publishes the Flash HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China. The data will provide the first glimpse of business conditions in December, and how the euro area’s financial crisis is affecting the real economy at home and further abroad.
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Contrasting export trends as sales surge in UK but slump in Germany
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| 9 December 2011 |
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| The UK trade deficit fell from a record £10.2bn in September to £7.6bn in October as the value of exports hit a record high. Goods exports were 14.7% up on a year ago, jumping 8.7% in October alone. It is unwise to get too excited about volatile monthly data, however, and looking at the trend over the latest three months suggests that the underlying rate of growth of exports has slowed markedly compared to earlier in the year. At the start of the year, exports were growing at a rate of roughly 6% every three months, but now we are only seeing a quarterly rate of increase of 0.6%. |
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Bank of England holds fire on extra stimulus despite bleak outlook
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| 8 December 2011 |
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| The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its December meeting. The lack of action was in line with expectations. The data flow has changed little over the last month. Although manufacturing is contracting at a steep pace, services continue to expand at a modest rate, leaving a picture of overall economic stagnation, which is in line with the Bank's forecasts. Inflationary pressures are meanwhile showing signs of cooling, with a strong reduction in the inflation rate next year growing increasingly likely. |
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European Central Bank acts as recession risk intensifies
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| 8 December 2011 |
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| The European Central Bank gave but also took away at its December press conference. The central bank cut rates and boosted credit availability to the banking system, but dented hopes of the ECB providing financial support to beleaguered governments. The ECB cut its main policy rate for the second month running in December, reversing what now appear to be two ill-timed rate hikes earlier in the year. The policy rate is now down to 1.00%. The move was widely expected. Despite inflation running stubbornly higher than the 2% target, holding at 3% in October, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the region is sliding back into recession.
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UK industrial production down at steepest rate in six months
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| 7 December 2011 |
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| Industrial production fell at the fastest rate for six months in October according to official data. Warm weather distorted the picture due to lower than usual energy consumption, so it is perhaps better to look just at manufacturing to see how industry is really faring. Unfortunately, looking at the latest three months, the trend is even more worrying. Manufacturing output fell 0.7% on the previous three months, which was the first such decline for two years. The official data are therefore now following the increasingly downbeat picture painted by the PMI survey in recent months, which suggests that a further deterioration in industry is to be expected in November. |
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EU banking sector activity continues to slide
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| 7 December 2011 |
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| European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the banking sector for the sixth month running in November. Elsewhere across the EU’s manufacturing and services economy, activity declined in all sectors except food and drink manufacturing, real estate and support services.
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Brazilian economic recovery grinds to halt in the third quarter
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| 7 December 2011 |
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| Growth in the Brazilian economy ground to a halt during the third quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) unchanged from the three months to June. The stagnation contrasted with 0.7% growth in the second quarter (revised down from 0.8%) and represents a marked contrast to the 0.8% pace seen at the start of the year. In year on year terms, the rate of economic growth slowed from 3.3% to 2.1% between the second and third quarters. |
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German industrial orders rebound in November
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| 6 December 2011 |
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| A sigh of relief as demand for German manufactured goods bounced back in October following a steep fall in September. A 5.2% increase in industrial orders in October more than offset a 4.6% decline the previous month. However, the monthly data are clearly very volatile, and it's therefore better to look at how orders have fared over the last three months as a whole. Here the news is more disappointing, with orders falling 4.0% compared to the previous three months, which is the steepest rate of decline since April 2009 (see chart). Orders are also still some 9.2% below the pre-recession peak four years ago, highlighting the struggle that manufacturers are facing to regain their pre-crisis sales levels. |
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UK PMI surveys signal stagnation with risk of further weakening to come
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| 5 December 2011 |
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| Modest expansions in the UK service and construction sectors offset a steep contraction of manufacturing output in November, but the end result was only very modest growth of overall economic activity during the month. The weakness signalled by the PMI surveys suggests that the economy is likely to stagnate in the final quarter of 2011. |
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China PMI data signal contraction of combined manufacturing and services output in November
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| 5 December 2011 |
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| Composite Chinese PMI™ data showed output falling for the first time in 32 months during November, with the seasonally adjusted HSBC Composite Output Index (covering manufacturing and services) posting 48.9, from 52.6 in October. Manufacturers recorded a first monthly reduction in output since July, while service providers saw activity growth ease to a three-month low. At 52.5 in November, down from 54.1 in October, the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index signalled only a modest rise in Chinese service sector activity in the context of historic data. The latest index reading was the lowest in three months, and well below the long-run series average (56.9). |
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November data show renewed reduction in Japanese private sector activity
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| 5 December 2011 |
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| Japanese service providers reported a renewed reduction in output during November. Looking ahead, firms were pessimistic about the one-year business outlook for the first time in seven months. Marginal reductions in new and outstanding business were recorded, while companies continued to reduce their staff numbers on average. Meanwhile, output charges fell again during November, in spite of a further increase in average input costs. |
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UK service sector registers further month of modest growth in November
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| 5 December 2011 |
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| UK service sector activity rose for an eleventh successive month in November, but at a modest
pace as incoming new business increased at the slowest rate of the year so far. Evidence of spare capacity was provided by accelerated falls in backlogs and employment. Higher utility costs continued to underpin a strong rate of overall input price inflation, while competitive pressures dampened pricing power, with output charges little changed since September. |
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Global growth improves despite ongoing manufacturing downturn
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| 5 December 2011 |
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| The rate of global economic expansion picked up slightly in November, regaining the growth momentum lost in the previous month. At 52.0, up from October's recovery-low of 51.3, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index signalled an increase in activity for the twenty-eighth consecutive month. |
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Output contracts in all four largest euro nations in November
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| 5 December 2011 |
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| The Eurozone private sector economy contracted for the third month running in November. At 47.0, up from 46.5 in October, the final Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled a slight easing in the rate of decline, but was weaker than the earlier flash estimate of 47.2. Output of the combined manufacturing and service sectors declined across all of the big-four nations for the first time since July 2009. |
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Global PMI hits 29-month low in November
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| 2 December 2011 |
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| Purchasing surveys signalled a marginal deterioration of worldwide manufacturing conditions for the third month running in November, providing further evidence that the recovery which began in July 2009 has stalled. The overall rate of decline is far weaker that seen in 2008-09, although the overall picture concealed marked variations in business trends around the world. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [05 – 09 Dec]: Services PMIs and China inflation data to steer monetary policy decisions
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| 2 December 2011 |
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| Important monetary policy meetings take place in a busy week. A slew of economic data releases will add to tension as euro zone political leaders seek to restore confidence in the lead up to Friday’s EU summit. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) are due to make announcements on monetary policy on Thursday. Meanwhile, Markit’s service sector PMIs are published on Monday. Official German, French, Italian and UK industrial production numbers will also be updated, and are likely to confirm the message of European economic weakness. |
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UK manufacturing woes intensify in November
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| 1 December 2011 |
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| The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered 47.6 in November, down from a revised figure of 47.8 in October, to signal a faster rate of deterioration of business conditions. The latest reading was the lowest since June 2009. Manufacturers cut output, employment and inventories as inflows of new orders fell for the fifth successive month. |
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Asian manufacturing contracts at steepest rate since early-2009
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| 1 December 2011 |
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| Asian manufacturing sector business conditions worsened at the fastest rate since April 2009. November PMI surveys showed the sector contracting for the second time in the past three months as PMIs came in below 50.0 no change levels in China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Only India’s PMI held above 50, but even there the expansion was only marginal. |
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Japanese manufacturers report renewed decline in output
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| 30 November 2011 |
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| Japan’s manufacturing sector slid back into contraction in November, with operating conditions deteriorating at the sharpest rate since the earthquake-related fall in April. This was signalled by a drop in the seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) from 50.6 to 49.1 in November. However, the drop in the PMI – a composite index based on five survey sub-indices, including lagging indicators relating to employment, inventories and delivery times – masked more worrying, steeper declines in manufacturing output and new orders. New business fell for the third month running, with the rate of decline gathering pace and encouraging manufacturers to cut production at the fastest rate since April. |
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Firms around the world report marked fall in confidence
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| 30 November 2011 |
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| Worldwide business confidence has fallen between June and October to its lowest since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Weaker expectations regarding business activity over the next 12 months are recorded in both the service and manufacturing sectors, according to the latest KPMG Global Business Outlook survey compiled by Markit. |
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Eurozone confidence hits two-year low in November
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| 29 November 2011 |
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| Business and consumer confidence fell in November, according to the European Commission's surveys, putting optimism at its lowest since November 2009. Confidence among both business and consumers has fallen substantially since the summer as the region's debt crisis has escalated. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [28 Nov – 02 Dec]: Worldwide purchasing manager surveys to guide economic growth projections
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| 25 November 2011 |
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| Flash PMIs for China and the Eurozone showed underlying manufacturing weakness in November. The global picture will become complete on Thursday, with particular focus on the US and UK. The surveys will provide an insight into worldwide economic growth in the final quarter and the extent to which the Eurozone debt crisis may have affected global trade flows. In the US, few analysts expect Friday’s non-farm payroll report to show much of an increase above 100,000, suggesting that the unemployment rate is likely to remain disappointingly high at 9%. US consumer confidence is also likely to have remained subdued. |
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Manufacturing weakness signalled as China PMI slumps to 32-month low
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| 23 November 2011 |
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| Flash PMI™ survey data released today showed operating conditions deteriorating in November at the steepest rate since March 2009. This was signalled by a drop in the headline PMI from 51.0 in October to 48.0, which was the largest fall in the index since November 2008. The slump in the headline PMI marks a reversal of the promising, albeit modest, rebound in manufacturing sector growth registered last month. The survey suggests that economic growth will have slowed in the fourth quarter, and raises the likelihood of more robust policy easing by the Chinese authorities in the months ahead.
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Eurozone contracts for third month running in November
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| 23 November 2011 |
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| The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, rose from 46.5 in October to 47.2 in November. Although signalling a slight weakening in the rate of contraction, the latest reading signalled a downturn in private sector business activity for the third successive month. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [21 - 25 Nov]: Eurozone business surveys to shed light on impact of debt crisis
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| 17 November 2011 |
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| Minutes from the Bank of England’s November Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be scoured for signs that policymakers have merely been waiting for the bank’s updated forecasts before deciding whether to crank up the printing presses again. Meanwhile, flash PMIs for Eurozone and China will provide an update on the impact of debt crisis on the real economy. The second estimate of economic growth for the third quarter and the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting are the main highlights in the US. |
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UK jobless rate climbs to 8.3% as youth unemployment breaks 1m
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| 16 November 2011 |
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| This morning’s official data showed a further deterioration in labour market conditions. The rate of unemployment hit 8.3% in the three months to September, up from 8.1% in the three months to August and the highest since the spring of 1996. However, the actual number out of work reached 2.622 million, the highest since 1994. |
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Canadian manufacturing sales up, but businesses say growth may slow in Q4
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| 16 November 2011 |
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| Canadian manufacturing sales increased further in September, according to the official statistics agency. At $49.2bn, the monthly rise was 2.6% higher than in August and 10.8% greater than a year earlier. An upturn in sales growth was identified by the RBC PMI™ but, with the headline index down in October, the rate of manufacturing sales growth is likely to ease over the coming months. |
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Economy expands 0.2% in third quarter, contraction likely in Q4
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| 15 November 2011 |
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| The euro area expanded by 0.2% in the third quarter, identical to the 0.2% expansion seen in the second quarter and in line with expectations. The meagre growth compares with 0.5% in the UK and 1.5% in Japan, although in both of these cases the rates of expansion were flattered by rebounds from disruptions to business in the second quarter. However, growth of 0.5% and 0.4% in Germany and France respectively may also have represented recoveries from temporary weakness in the second quarter, suggesting that the growth trend has weakened throughout 2011 so far. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [14 - 18 Nov]: Indicators to provide updates on developed world economic health
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| 11 November 2011 |
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| Economic data releases look set to merely provide side shows in a week likely to be dominated by the euro area financial crisis. However, the Bank of England’s Inflation Report will give important insight into how the crisis has affected the growth and inflation outlook. The report will no doubt show a more pessimistic growth outlook, and will be scrutinised for clues as to whether more QE will be announced in December. |
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Global PMI™ hits post-crisis low in October
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| 8 November 2011 |
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| October’s PMI surveys signalled the weakest month of global economic growth seen over the past two years of recovery. The JPMorgan Global PMI fell from 52.0 in September to 51.4 in October, the lowest reading by a small margin since the recovery began in August 2009. The data are consistent with global GDP rising at an annual rate of c.1.5%, down sharply from c.4% a year ago. By comparison, the average rate of global economic growth seen in the six years prior to the recession was 3.3%. |
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Asian growth stymied by falling exports
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| 8 November 2011 |
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| Growth rates in the emerging markets continued to be stymied by weak demand for goods from the developed world, as austerity measures continued to bite in many western countries and the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone dented business and consumer confidence. This weak demand resulted in a further decrease in new export orders at Asian manufacturing firms, down for the fifth month running. |
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Weaker global growth brings welcome easing of price pressures
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| 8 November 2011 |
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| October’s PMI™ surveys indicated a welcome easing of manufacturing price pressures, which should feed through to lower consumer prices in coming months and help boost growth by alleviating pressure on consumers’ squeezed incomes. However, the easing in the rate of inflation reflects slower economic growth, with supply exceeding demand for many commodities, highlighting the fragility of the economic recovery, especially in manufacturing. |
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EU banking sector activity falls at fastest rate since mid-2009
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| 7 November 2011 |
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| European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the EU banking sector for the fifth month running in October. The rate of decline accelerated to the fastest since July 2009, driven by a fall in inflows of new business for the fifth successive month. The Business Expectations indicator improved for the second successive survey from August’s collapse, but remains far below its historic trend level. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [07 - 11 Nov]: China data and UK monetary policy noteworthy distractions in a week likely to be dominated by EZ debt drama
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| 4 November 2011 |
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| The week will no doubt be dominated by the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, but markets will also be watching the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision on Thursday and a raft of data out of China. Having surprised with an additional £75 billion of quantitative easing at the October meeting, it would be a surprise to see further stimulus implemented so soon. Meanwhile, inflation and industrial production data for China will provide major clues as to the health of the World’s second largest economy and the likely course of policy for the next few months. |
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UK PMI™ surveys signal stalled recovery
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| 3 November 2011 |
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| A downturn in the UK all-sector PMI signals a stagnation of GDP in October, and a worsening trend in new orders suggests that the survey data may worsen in coming months, adding to the risk of the economy sliding back into contraction in Q4. The weighted average of the Output Indices from the three Markit/CIPS PMI™ surveys fell from 52.7 in September to 51.0 in October. |
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Eurozone manufacturing downturn accelerates in October
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| 2 November 2011 |
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| Conditions in the Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to weaken in October. At 47.1, down from 48.5 in September, the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since July 2009. The PMI has remained below the neutral mark of 50.0 for three months. Signs of weakness are becoming increasingly apparent in the core nations, while the periphery remains mired in recession. |
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UK manufacturing new orders show largest decline since March 2009
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| 1 November 2011 |
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| The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4 in October, down from 50.8 in September. The survey has signalled contraction in three of the last four months, with the latest decline the largest since June 2009. All five components of the PMI deteriorated compared with September, as manufacturers cut output, employment and inventories in the face of a marked downturn in demand for manufactured goods. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [31 Oct – 04 Nov]: PMIs, central bank policy and US employment to dictate market sentiment
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| 28 October 2011 |
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| Manufacturing and Services PMIs, published around the world, will provide a comprehensive snapshot of global growth trends in October. Meanwhile, central banks in Australia, the US and Eurozone are set to announce policy decisions. The preliminary estimate of Q3 economic growth, alongside manufacturing, construction and services PMI™ numbers are the main highlights for the UK. Next week is also peppered with some key economic data releases for the Untied States. Factory orders, construction spending and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data are all published, while the Chicago PMI will be used to gauge the ISM manufacturing release on Tuesday. The all-important non-farm payrolls number draws the week to a close. |
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PMI™ signals renewed growth of China’s manufacturing sector
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| 24 October 2011 |
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| Flash HSBC PMI™ data, compiled by Markit, showed Chinese manufacturing output increasing at the fastest rate in six months amid signs of improved demand for Chinese manufactured goods. Growth of new export orders was the strongest for almost a year, while overall new orders rose for the first time since July. In fact, all five of the indexes used to compile the PMI index reading contributed to the rise in the headline number, which climbed from 49.9 to a five-month high of 51.1 after adjusting for seasonal factors. |
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UK HFI: Majority of households expecting income to stagnate
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| 24 October 2011 |
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| UK households report a subdued outlook for their income over the coming year. Around 55% of participants in the Markit Household Finance Index (HFI) during October anticipate no change in income, against 31% that expect an improvement and 15% that predict a decline. |
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Eurozone downturn gathers momentum in October
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| 24 October 2011 |
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| At 47.2, down from 49.1 in September, the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell further below the 50.0 no change level in October. The deterioration signalled a second successive monthly contraction of the private sector economy and the fastest rate of decline since July 2009. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [24 - 28 Oct]: Flash PMIs and US GDP numbers to provide insight into global growth trends
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| 21 October 2011 |
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| The weekend’s summit of European leaders will no doubt dominate the markets on Monday, but the week also starts with some key economic releases. The HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI™ for China will provide important insights into fourth quarter economic growth, while the flash Eurozone PMI will indicate how businesses in the single-currency – the epicentre of the global economic slowdown – are faring in the face of the uncertainty caused by the escalating sovereign debt crisis. The week also sees the first estimate of US GDP for the third quarter. Meanwhile, a number of European consumer confidence indicators are published, which will be eagerly awaited to see if sentiment has been knocked in October by the region’s financial troubles. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 20 October 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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China’s economic growth dips in Q3
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| 18 October 2011 |
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| Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed China’s economy expanding at the slowest pace for nine quarters in Q3, with growth of gross domestic product (GDP) easing from an annual rate of 9.5% to 9.1% (the consensus had been for a 9.2% expansion). The HSBC Composite PMI™ (covering manufacturing and services) had been consistent with the economy growing at an annual rate of around 9.0%, having averaged its lowest quarterly reading for two-and-a-half years in Q3. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [17 - 21 Oct]: Policymaker statements to provide insight into need for further stimulus
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| 14 October 2011 |
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| The week will see three important communications from central banks which will be watched to see what options policymakers are considering to help prevent double-dip recessions. In terms of data, the US sees releases of industrial production, inflation and housing starts numbers for September. Meanwhile, Eurozone consumer confidence is likely to provide downbeat news. The UK sees publication of inflation, retail sales and public sector borrowing statistics for September, and China releases third quarter GDP as well as industrial production, retail sales and investment data. |
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UK unemployment rises to highest level for almost 17 years
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| 12 October 2011 |
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| UK unemployment reached 2.57 million in the three months to August, its highest level since October 1994, pushing the unemployment rate up to 8.1%. The downbeat labour market data add to the flow of worrying economic news and highlight the growing risk of the UK sliding back into recession before the end of the year. |
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Global economy sees weakest quarter for two years in Q3
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| 11 October 2011 |
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| Purchasing surveys signalled a slight uptick in the rate of global economic growth in September, but the rise was insufficient to prevent the average growth rate for the third quarter slipping to the lowest for two years. The surveys therefore point to a second successive quarter of sub-2% worldwide GDP growth. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [10 - 14 Oct]: Policy pointers to come from inflation and production numbers
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| 7 October 2011 |
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| Central banks have become increasingly rattled by the risks facing the world’s major economies. The week’s data will be watched to see if further policy stimulus will be warranted by a further downturn in production and easing price pressures, or whether rising inflation might tie policymakers’ hands, especially in the euro area. |
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Sustained contraction of EU banking sector in September
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| 7 October 2011 |
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| European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the EU banking sector for the fourth month running in September. The pace of contraction eased slightly, but confidence in the sector has failed to show any significant recovery from the near-record plunge seen in August, suggesting an ongoing contraction is likely in the coming months. |
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Japanese private sector activity falls at solid pace in September
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| 5 October 2011 |
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| The Services Business Activity Index posted 46.4 in September, signalling a continued decline in activity. Earlier PMI data had signalled a fall in manufacturing production for the first time in five months and, as a result, the Composite Output Index remained below 50.0 for the seventh month running, signalling a solid reduction in Japanese private sector activity. |
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Broad-based weakening causes Eurozone to contract for first time in over two years
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| 5 October 2011 |
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| At 49.1, down from 50.7 in August, the final Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index for September signalled the first drop in private sector activity since July 2009. The final reading was broadly unchanged on the earlier flash estimate of 49.2. The average reading for the third quarter as a whole was just 50.3 – signalling a stagnation of activity – down from 55.6 in Q2 and 57.6 in Q1.
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UK PMI rebound lifts prospects for GDP upturn in Q3
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| 5 October 2011 |
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| The PMI surveys indicate that private sector economic growth picked up in September, with upturns in services and manufacturing offsetting stagnation in construction. The weighted average of the Output Indices from the three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys rose to 52.7 from a 26-month low of 50.9 in August. The improvement lifts the prospects for GDP growth in the third quarter. |
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Medium sized companies driving UK jobs growth
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| 5 October 2011 |
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| The UK PMI surveys show strong variations in output and employment growth according to company size. In line with the historic trend across the surveys, output growth during the recovery has been led by large- and medium-sized firms. Also, output growth generally exceeds employment growth across companies of all sizes. But the gap for medium and small firms is less than that seen for large firms. |
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September data signal continued stagnation of China’s manufacturing sector
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| 3 October 2011 |
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| The stagnation of China’s manufacturing sector continued in September, with output growth constrained by lacklustre demand from both domestic and external clients. Growth of purchasing and outstanding business softened as a result, while stocks of finished goods fell for the fourteenth month in succession. On the price front, average input costs rose at the fastest rate in four months. |
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Eurozone Manufacturing PMI hits 25-month low in September
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| 3 October 2011 |
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| The Eurozone manufacturing sector contracted for the second successive month in September. At 48.5, down from 49.0 in August, the final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in slightly above the flash estimate of 48.4, but nonetheless hit its lowest level since August 2009. |
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Return to growth of UK manufacturing production in September
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| 3 October 2011 |
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| September saw a moderate expansion of the UK manufacturing sector, an improvement on the contraction signalled in the previous month. However, the underlying rate of growth through the third quarter of the year is well below the high reached in Q1, as the trend in new orders has become more subdued. |
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Combined growth of Chinese manufacturing and services output improves to three-month high in September
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| 3 October 2011 |
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| September data showed growth of China’s private sector strengthening from near-stagnation in August. This was signalled by a rise in the HSBC Composite Output Index (covering manufacturing and services) to a three-month high of 51.5. However, the index was well below the long-run series average (54.6). Moreover, for Q3 as a whole, the index averaged its lowest quarterly reading since Q1 2009. |
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Global Manufacturing PMI dips to 27-month low in September
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| 3 October 2011 |
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| At 49.9 in September, down from 50.2 in August, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time since June 2009. Over Q3 2011 as a whole, production growth was negligible, down sharply from Q1's recent peak. New orders, meanwhile, contracted for the first time since Q2 2009. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [03 - 07 Oct]: PMI™ surveys to provide backdrop to ECB and BoE monetary policy decisions
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| 30 September 2011 |
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| Manufacturing PMI™ surveys for September are published around the world on Monday, followed by service sector PMIs on Wednesday. The results will be particularly closely watched for guidance on whether the Bank of England and European Central Bank will loosen policy on Thursday. In the US, non-farm payrolls round off a busy week, which includes the ISM surveys and a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke, all of which will be eyed for clues as to whether the Fed is considering more stimulus. Non-farm payrolls showed no growth in August and, while jobless claims have fallen more than expected, payroll growth in September is unlikely to have exceeded the 40,000 average seen over the previous four months. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [26 - 30 Sept]: Week set to highlight lacklustre US economy and falling European confidence
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| 23 September 2011 |
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| The US sees a slew of data releases, including the third revision of Q2 GDP, personal income and spending, durable goods orders and new home sales, plus S&P Case-Shiller house price data for July. An insight into business conditions in September will be provided by the Conference Board consumer confidence survey and the Chicago PMI. European confidence surveys are likely to show a further broad-based deterioration of sentiment in the euro area, while flash CPI and unemployment data for Euroland are also published. In Asia, Friday sees the publication of September manufacturing PMIs for Japan and China, as well industrial production for Japan. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [19 - 23 Sept]: Central bank policymaking under the spotlight
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| 16 September 2011 |
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| The highlights of the week are updates on US and UK central bank policymaking and flash PMI surveys for China and Eurozone. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on Wednesday will be watched for the possibility of additional stimulus. Meanwhile, the Bank of England elected to do nothing at its September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, but the minutes from the meeting are likely to indicate that the MPC grew increasingly worried about the fragility of the economic recovery following a raft of weak data. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 16 September 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [12 - 16 Sept]: Inflation data take centre stage amid increased focus on central bank policy
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| 09 September 2011 |
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| Policymakers will be watching the inflation numbers next week, as US, UK and Eurozone consumer price indices are updated for August. Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic will also be watching retail sales data, with UK high street spending likely to have come under downward pressure from rioting in early August, as well as the ongoing squeeze on consumer incomes from rising prices. Other notable releases are industrial production numbers for the US and Eurozone, plus trade data for the UK. |
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EU banking sector confidence evaporates in August
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| 07 September 2011 |
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| European PMI sector data signalled a further decline in activity at EU banks in August. More worryingly, the forward-looking indicator – which tracks business expectations over the next 12 months – suffered its largest one-month drop since September 2001. The Business Expectations Index was its lowest since January 2009, approaching the territory last visited during the late-2008 global financial crisis. |
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Global economy making lacklustre progress in Q3
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| 06 September 2011 |
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| August PMI data signal that growth of the global economy has eased to its slowest since the recovery began two years ago. Manufacturers and service providers across the world – especially in developed markets – are facing a combination of weak domestic demand and declining international trade flows. Forward-looking indicators also suggest the near-term chances of a significant improvement in global economic growth look increasingly remote. |
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US Non-manufacturing PMI surprises to the upside, but growth still set to ease
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| 06 September 2011 |
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| The ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey came in far stronger than expected in August, helping to dispel some of the recent gloom. The headline index rose from 52.7 to 53.3, defying expectations of a fall to 51.0. Growth of business activity slowed only slightly from July's four-month high, while new orders rose at an increased rate. |
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UK PMI surveys point to economic stagnation in Q3
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| 05 September 2011 |
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| The PMI surveys pointed to a near-stagnation of economic growth in August, signalling an increased risk that GDP growth in Q3 could be even weaker than the 0.2% rise seen in Q2. Forward-looking indicators also suggest that the economy could weaken further at the end of the quarter, and will provide ammunition for those seeking a further injection of stimulus by the Bank of England. The all-sector PMI is at a level which has always triggered interest rate cuts in the past. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [05 – 09 Sept]: Services PMI data to provide further insight into business trends during August
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| 02 September 2011 |
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| After manufacturing PMI surveys that, on the whole, indicated a slowdown in August, the financial markets will be focused on the release of services and composite PMI data. Other important releases include Chinese inflation, and industrial production for Germany, France and the UK. The ECB and Bank of England will announce their latest interest rate decisions. In the US, Bernanke will give a speech on Thursday that may provide insight into future Fed policy. |
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UK manufacturing set for slide back into recession
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| 01 September 2011 |
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| The latest UK PMI survey showed business conditions deteriorating in August, with manufacturing set to slide back into recession and act as an increasing drag on the country’s economic recovery in the third quarter. A steep drop in export orders exacerbated austerity-hit domestic demand. Manufacturers also look set to cut staff levels at an increasing rate in coming months as weak demand leads to cost-cutting. |
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Eurozone PMI at two-year low as new orders fall in all countries
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| 01 September 2011 |
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| Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit: “Final PMI data for August were even worse than the disappointing earlier flash numbers, signalling an end to the manufacturing recovery which began in October 2009. PMIs either signalled stagnation or contraction in all countries surveyed, with output falling for the first time since July 2009 and job creation sliding to the lowest for nearly a year." |
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China Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 in August
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| 01 September 2011 |
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| Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC:“The August final manufacturing PMI reading edged up marginally from the flash reading, almost close to the break-even level. Both output and employment rebounded to above the 50 line for the first time in three months. These data confirm our view that China will only see growth moderation in the coming months, rather than a hard landing.” |
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US manufacturing PMI edges closer to stagnation
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| 01 September 2011 |
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| A drop in the ISM’s headline PMI to 50.6 from 50.9 in July was better than the 48.5 reading analysts had been expecting, but this survey is still signalling a worryingly slow rate of growth of the US manufacturing sector. The near-stagnation signalled by the ISM survey was the weakest performance since the US PMI rose above the neutral 50 level in August 2009. |
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Global manufacturing stagnates in broad-based slowdown
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| 01 September 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in August. The near-stagnation signalled was the worst performance since the recovery began two years ago and represents a big turnaround in the growth profile of the manufacturing sector compared to the post-recession peak of 57.4 seen in February. |
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Output growth at Japanese manufacturers eases to three-month low, despite faster rise in new business
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| 31 August 2011 |
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| Alex Hamilton, economist at Markit: “PMI survey data suggest that domestic demand drove overall manufacturing expansion in August, as new export business continued to fall amid persistent yen strength and reports of sluggish demand from China. Reports from survey respondents suggested that overall new order growth was in part supported by recovery in the autos sector." |
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Week ahead economic calendar [29 Aug – 02 Sept]: Manufacturing PMIs to provide snapshot of global economic conditions in August
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| 26 August 2011 |
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| Big week for economic data starting Monday, with manufacturing PMIs released around the world. Meanwhile, the minutes from the US Fed’s August FOMC meeting will also be watched closely for clues as to whether the Fed has appetite (and scope) for more stimulus. Important updates on the resilience of the US recovery will be provided by two of the most market-moving economic indicators in the monthly calendar: the ISM manufacturing survey and non-farm payrolls. The current state of the UK economy will also be reflected in the publication of the Markit Construction PMI™ plus money supply and mortgage lending data from the Bank of England. |
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Almost 70% of British households are downbeat about the UK economic outlook
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| 25 August 2011 |
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| Households are more downbeat about the UK economic outlook in August than was reported last month. Exactly 69% of British households anticipate worse economic conditions in one year’s time, up from 61.6% in July. Just 15.2% of respondents expect conditions to improve, down from 19.3% in July. Scotland is the most pessimistic region, while the East of England is the least downbeat. London saw the sharpest deterioration in sentiment (net balance down from -33.4% to -60.0% in August).
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German IFO survey confirms PMI™ weakness
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| 24 August 2011 |
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| August’s IFO survey provided more disappointing news for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. The IFO survey came in well below expectations, with the overall business climate index falling from 112.9 in July to 108.7 in August. Analysts were expecting a reading of 111.0 according to Reuters. Indices of both current and expected future conditions fell more than anticipated. The data also add to the prospect of the German economy stagnating in the third quarter, or even sliding back into contraction, having grown just 0.1% in the second quarter. |
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Eurozone growth stuck at two-year low as inflows of new work show renewed contraction
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| 23 August 2011 |
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| The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, was unchanged at 51.1 in August. The latest reading signalled a rate of increase identical to July’s twenty-two month low and a further near-stagnation of private sector output. |
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Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions deteriorate at fractional rate in August
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| 23 August 2011 |
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| The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month. |
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China: Large manufacturers report steepest fall in production for 15 months
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| 23 August 2011 |
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| Flash PMI™ survey data released today showed Chinese manufacturing production falling for the second successive month during August. However, the rate of decline in factory output eased compared with July, with the PMI Output Index climbing from 48.0 to 49.4. The easing in growth was not broad-based, however, with differing performance by company size. The slower contraction of production reflected renewed growth at smaller manufacturers, where production rose for the first time in three months. In contrast, large firms recorded the sharpest decline in output for 15 months. This represents a turnaround compared to earlier in the year, when larger companies had generally outperformed smaller firms. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [22 – 26 August]: Flash PMIs to reveal insight into global growth soft-patch
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| 19 August 2011 |
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| With economic data releases that are usually confined to the sidelines now having the potential to create havoc in financial markets, the news flow will be watched closely for any clues that the global economy's soft patch is coming to an end, or whether it is turning into something more worrying. The flash PMIs, published on Tuesday, will provide the first available indications of business conditions in China and the Eurozone during August. Meanwhile, second estimates of Q2 economic growth for the UK and US are released on Friday. |
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UK unemployment jumps amid weakening job market
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| 17 August 2011 |
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| Official data paint a very disappointing picture of the UK labour market. Claimant count unemployment showed the largest jump since May 2009, up 37,500 – almost twice the 20,000 rise that analysts had been expecting. The unemployment rate also jumped to 7.9% from 7.7%. Survey data indicate that unemployment is likely to continue to rise in coming months as private sector employers fail to make up for public sector job cuts. The Markit/CIPS PMI™ survey showed companies reducing their headcounts in July due to concerns over the economic outlook. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 17 August 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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Week Ahead Economic Calendar
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| 12 August 2011 |
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| Highlights of the week in terms of economic data releases are inflation data for the UK and US, plus the first estimate of second quarter GDP for Germany and the Eurozone. |
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French economy stagnates in second quarter
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| 12 August 2011 |
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| Official data showed that the French recovery stalled in the second quarter, with zero gross domestic product (GDP) growth the worst performance since the recovery started two years ago. |
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Global economy remains in the doldrums, but price pressures ease
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| 10 August 2011 |
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| The global economy remained stuck in the slow lane during July, although a modest improvement in the rate of growth was evident as a faster rate of expansion in the service sector offset a further slowdown in manufacturing. The JPMorgan Global PMI™, compiled by Markit, rose from 52.3 in June to 52.6 in July. However, in spite of the increase, the index was the third-lowest since the recovery began in August 2009 and remains consistent with worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just 2% per annum. |
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China PMI™ data signal steeper slowdown than official data
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| 10 August 2011 |
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| Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show industrial output growth easing from an annual rate of 15.1% to 14.0% in July. The slowdown in part reflects monetary tightening by the authorities in a bid to curb inflation. Although it is clear that the current cycle of interest rate and reserve ratio hikes is having the desired cooling effect on growth, the same cannot be said for inflation. Consumer price inflation hit 6.5% in July, the steepest pace for 37 months. |
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UK manufacturers’ renewed plight highlighted by falling exports and output
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| 09 August 2011 |
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| Latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed a further deterioration in the performance of the UK manufacturing sector, confirming the downbeat news from recent business surveys. Manufacturing output fell 0.4% in June, leaving production 2.1% down on a year ago, while the trade deficit for goods increased to nearly £8.9bn as exporters struggled in the face of weakened demand in key overseas markets. |
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EU banking activity declines further in July
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| 05 August 2011 |
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| European Union PMI sector data, based on the FTSE/Dow Jones Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB), signalled a further decline in business activity at EU banks in July. Banks is a constituent sector of the broad financials industry, one of seven industry groups covered by ICB PMI data. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [08 – 12 August]: Case for quantitative easing gathers momentum as global growth falters
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| 05 August 2011 |
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| Economic data releases will be under the spotlight next week, as global growth hangs in balance. A swathe of market moving data for China are published, namely industrial production, consumer price inflation, trade and retail sales numbers. Meanwhile, the US monetary policy decision on Tuesday will be watched with great interest. The US also sees the publication of international trade, retail sales and University of Michigan consumer confidence figures. Other major releases include the Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes from its July meeting midweek and Eurozone industrial production numbers published on Friday. |
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Eurozone drifts nearer to stagnation in July, as Germany and France slow further and Spain falls back into contraction
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| 03 August 2011 |
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| Having eased sharply in each of the previous three months, Eurozone private sector growth moved closer to stagnation at the start of Q3 2011. The Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 51.1 in July, down from 53.3 in June. Although above the earlier flash estimate of 50.8, the final reading was still the lowest since September 2009. |
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UK service sector activity increases at strongest pace in four months during July
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| 03 August 2011 |
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| The UK service sector expanded in July at a marked and accelerated rate. The Markit/CIPS Business Activity Index recorded 55.4, up from 53.9 in June, to indicate a rise in activity that was the strongest for four months. However, lingering uncertainty over the direction of the economy undermined expectations and hiring decisions. |
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Combined growth of Chinese manufacturing and services output eases to only marginal rate in July
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| 03 August 2011 |
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| Overall growth of China’s manufacturing and service sectors eased to near-stagnation in July, with the HSBC Composite Output Index posting 50.4. This was down from 51.6 in June, and below the long-run series average. The slowdown in overall growth reflected a faster decline in manufacturing output and a slower expansion of activity in the service sector. |
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Japanese private sector activity falls at solid pace in July
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| 03 August 2011 |
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| Japanese service providers reported lower business activity for the sixth consecutive month during July, as intakes of new work continued to fall amid weak domestic consumption. Meanwhile, PMI survey data released 29 July signalled that manufacturing production in Japan rose at the fastest rate since February. Consequently, the Composite Output Index, covering activity across both manufacturing and services, rose fractionally from 47.6 to 47.7 in July. |
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Global growth accelerated slightly in July, as faster expansion in services offset slowdown in manufacturing
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| 03 August 2011 |
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| The global economy expanded at a slightly quicker pace in July, as faster growth of services business activity offset a weaker increase in manufacturing production. At 52.6, up from 52.3 in June, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index remained above the 50.0 mark, signalling expansion, for the twenty-fourth consecutive month. |
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Japanese manufacturing production rises at sharpest rate in five months
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| 01 August 2011 |
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| Japan’s manufacturing recovery gathered momentum in July, with renewed new order growth and easing supply side pressures supporting a faster expansion of production. Consequently, manufacturers added to their employee numbers for the first time in four months. On the price front, input cost inflation eased, but remained strong nonetheless, while output charges rose at a modest pace. |
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Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions deteriorate for first time in a year
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| 01 August 2011 |
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| PMI survey data signalled that Chinese manufacturing production continued to fall in July, as total new order growth eased to near-stagnation amid reports of lacklustre global demand. Purchasing activity fell for a second successive month as a result, which in turn contributed to a steeper decline in stocks of pre-production goods. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated, but remained subdued in the context of historic data. Consequently, manufacturers raised their factory gate charges only marginally in the latest survey period. |
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UK Manufacturing PMI signals contraction for first time in two years in July
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| 01 August 2011 |
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| Operating conditions in the UK manufacturing sector deteriorated for the first time in two years during July. Output growth slowed closer to stagnation, as new orders declined at the fastest rate since May 2009. The weaker performance of the sector impacted on the labour market, as manufacturers lowered employment for the first time in 16 months. |
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Eurozone manufacturing moves closer to stagnation in July
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| 01 August 2011 |
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| The Eurozone manufacturing recovery lost further momentum in July. The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® fell to 50.4, below June’s 52.0 and the weakest reading since the recovery began in October 2009. The level of the headline PMI was in line with the earlier flash estimate. |
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Growth of global manufacturing sector moves closer to stagnation
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| 01 August 2011 |
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| The global manufacturing sector continued to cool at the start of H2 2011. Growth of production slowed to a near standstill, as levels of incoming new business declined slightly for the first time in over two years. At 50.6 in July, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ fell to
its lowest level since July 2009, the first month of the ongoing recovery. The headline PMI has signalled a substantial easing in the overall rate of expansion since hitting a near-record high only five months ago. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [01 – 05 August]: Global economic growth hangs in the balance
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| 29 July 2011 |
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| Market attention will remain firmly on US debt wrangling over the weekend, as a Tuesday deadline looms large. In terms of economic data, the publication of PMI™ data for nearly all of the world’s major developed and emerging countries will dominate the first half of the week. Central bank policy announcements also feature heavily next week, with committees in Australia, the Eurozone, Japan, Russia and the UK all meeting to set interest rates. In the US, the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data and Friday’s employment report are the highlights. |
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Two-thirds of British households downbeat about economic outlook
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| 26 July 2011 |
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| Markit’s survey of 1,500 UK households showed that almost two-thirds expect the state of the economy to deteriorate in the coming year, while just one-in-five expect an improvement. When analysed by region, income group, employment type and age, all categories saw pessimists exceed optimists. Young high-earners in the south east were the least pessimistic, while private sector employees were considerably less gloomy than those in the public sector. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [25 – 29 July]: Economic growth in the US and UK under spotlight
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| 22 July 2011 |
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| Key releases for the week will be the first estimates of second quarter GDP for the UK and US, published on Tuesday and Friday respectively. The US GDP numbers will be preceded by house price data from Case-Shiller on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Wednesday, while the first insight into whether the weakness of the UK household sector persisted into the second half of the year will be provided by the Markit Household Finance Index. |
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Eurozone growth slows to near-stagnation in July
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| 21 July 2011 |
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| The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell from 53.3 in June to 50.8 in July. The latest reading was the lowest since August 2009. Manufacturing output declined for the first time since July 2009, while activity growth slowed sharply in services. |
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Flash China Manufacturing PMI at 48.9, 28-month low
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| 21 July 2011 |
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| The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. |
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Flash PMI™ signals manufacturing contraction in China
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| 21 July 2011 |
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| The HSBC Manufacturing PMI™ for China fell from 50.1 in June to 48.9 in July, according to the flash reading, dropping below the 50.0 no-change level for the first time in a year. The latest reading signalled the largest deterioration of manufacturing sector operating conditions since March 2009. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 20 July 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [18 – 22 July]: Eurozone business surveys take centre stage
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| 15 July 2011 |
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| The initial driver of the markets on Monday will likely be the results of the European bank stress tests and ongoing talks regarding sovereign debt, as well as US budget discussions. The Eurozone will remain in focus over the week with a slew of economic data published, including the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI™ surveys for July. |
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UK official labour market data mixed, but surveys point to weakness ahead
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| 13 July 2011 |
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| This morning saw another set of mixed UK labour market data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The number claiming jobseekers' allowance showed the largest monthly jump for two years in June, to 1.52m. The Labour Force Survey, on the other hand, suggested that unemployment fell by 26,000 in the three months to May to 2.45m. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [11 – 15 July]: Inflation numbers to shed light on global price pressures
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| 08 July 2011 |
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| A key focus of the week will be the publication of a swathe of data from China on Friday, including the first estimate of second quarter GDP plus industrial production, retail sales and inflation numbers. Meanwhile, some clues as to the direction of future policy in the US, Eurozone and UK may be provided by inflation and industrial production numbers, which are published for the US and Eurozone, plus labour market and trade data for the UK. The US data will be looked at in the context of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, published on Tuesday. |
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Global economic growth weakest for almost two years in Q2
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| 07 July 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, fell from 52.7 in May to 52.2 in June. The latest PMI, which measures private sector output growth across manufacturing and services in all major world economies, rounded off the weakest quarter since 2009 Q3. |
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EU: Financial industry activity fell for the first time in two years in June. Banking sector outlook at two-year low
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| 07 July 2011 |
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| European Union PMI sector data, based on the FTSE/Dow Jones Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) , signalled a fall in business activity in the financials industry in June. Of seven broad industry groups covered, financials was the worst-performing except for basic materials. |
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EU: Autos sector grows at weakest rate since August 2009
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| 07 July 2011 |
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| European Union PMI detailed sector data signalled a further slowdown in the European automobile industry in June. Output rose for the twenty-third successive month, but the increase was the smallest since August 2009. Having been the fastest growing sector among 22 areas covered in total in the first two months of the year, automobiles & parts producers were ranked ninth in June. |
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Chinese service sector activity rose solidly in June, but confidence in the one-year business outlook dipped to record low.
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| 05 July 2011 |
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| Chinese service providers signalled a further increase in business activity during June, as new order growth quickened to an eight-month high. Subsequently, the number of people employed within the service sector increased further during the latest survey period. This occurred despite a drop in business confidence to a series-record low. |
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Japanese private sector activity fell at slowest rate in four months
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| 05 July 2011 |
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| The Markit Japan Composite Output Index, covering activity across both manufacturing and services, rose from 46.2 in May to a four-month high of 47.6 in June. Looking ahead, service providers expressed the strongest degree of optimism in the one-year business outlook for two years. |
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Eurozone growth slides to 20-month low in June
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| 05 July 2011 |
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| At 53.3, down from 55.8 in May, the Markit Eurozone Composite Output Index fell to a 20-month low in June. The index was below the earlier flash estimate of 53.6, and the fall since May signalled the steepest monthly slowdown in the rate of expansion since November 2008. |
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UK: Uplift in PMI surveys for June fails to halt Q2 slowdown
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| 05 July 2011 |
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| The three Markit UK PMI surveys collectively signalled a faster rate of economic growth in June, but the improvement failed to lift the average pace for the second quarter close to that seen in the first three months of the year. The data suggest that the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, will have expanded by 0.3% at best in the second quarter as a whole, down from 0.5% in the first quarter. |
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UK manufacturing growth stalling as export surge fades
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| 01 July 2011 |
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| The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 51.3 in June, down from 52.0 in May and the lowest reading since September 2009. The near-stagnation signalled by the index represents a steep deterioration in the performance of the sector since the surging growth seen at the start of the year. |
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Chinese manufacturing output fell for the first time since July 2010
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| 01 July 2011 |
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| Manufacturing production in China fell during June, as total new order growth continued to moderate. On the inflation front, price pressures cooled noticeably, with both input and output prices rising at only modest rates. The seasonally adjusted HSBC PMI™ – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – fell to an eleven-month low of 50.1 in June. |
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Broad-based slowdown in Eurozone manufacturing as growth hits 18-month low
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| 01 July 2011 |
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| The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a one-and-a-half year low of 52.0 in June, down from 54.6 in May and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. At 54.9, the average PMI reading during Q2 2011 is the lowest since the opening quarter of 2010 and well below the average of 57.9 seen in Q1. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [04 – 08 July]: Economic data releases to provide insight into global slowdown
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| 01 July 2011 |
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| A week crammed with economic data and central bank policy announcements is also likely to see the ongoing Greek debt saga continue to grab the headlines. The highlights of the week are set to be policy meetings at the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. Before the announcements, policymakers will see the June PMI™ service sector data, published on Tuesday. The week also sees some all-important data releases for the US, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI published on Wednesday, followed by non-farm payrolls on Friday. |
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Global PMI at 23-month low as manufacturing slowdown continues
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| 01 July 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 52.3 in June, down from 53.0 in May and well below February's near series record high. The latest reading was the weakest since July 2009, the first month of the current two-year period of recovery. |
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ONS: UK service sector output fell in April
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| 29 June 2011 |
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| Latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed that output of the UK service sector – which represents three-quarters of UK economic activity – fell 1.2% in April, more than reversing a 0.8% increase seen in March. The fall was the biggest since January 2010, when heavy snow disrupted the economy. Special factors appear to have been at play again in April, with services sector activity hit by the Royal Wedding, an additional bank holiday and the hottest weather for the month since records began. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [27 June – 1 July]: Surveys to provide policymakers with first insight into global growth and prices trends in June
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| 24 June 2011 |
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| The publication of manufacturing PMI™ data for nearly all of the world’s major developed and emerging countries will be the highlight of the week in terms of economic data. Before the PMIs are released, however, attention is likely to remain focused on Greece, with any worsening of the Eurozone’s financial crisis seen by central banks as a major threat to global economic growth in the coming year. The week also sees a raft of data on inflation, the US housing market and consumer trends, plus business conditions in Japan. |
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Germany: PMI points to Q2 GDP slowdown, while IFO survey gives mixed signals
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| 24 June 2011 |
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| The IFO and Markit PMI™ surveys of German business conditions diverged again in June. The former suggests current business conditions have reached a new peak, while the PMI signals that economic growth slowed in Q2. The IFO’s forward-looking expectations index also points to a slowdown, but it fails to match the PMI in terms of its accuracy in anticipating changes in gross domestic product. |
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Flash PMI: Eurozone growth weakest since October 2009, led by sharp manufacturing slowdown.
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| 23 June 2011 |
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| The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell from 55.8 in May to a 20-month low of 53.6 in June. The loss of momentum during Q2 has been marked, especially in manufacturing, where output growth slowed to the weakest since September 2009. |
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Flash PMI: Chinese manufacturing sector close to stagnation in June
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| 23 June 2011 |
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| The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month. In June, the PMI fell to an 11-month low of 50.1, from 51.6 in May. |
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Flash China PMI™ data show stagnation of manufacturing output in June
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| 23 June 2011 |
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| Flash PMI™ survey data released 23 June signalled a continued slowdown in the expansion of China’s manufacturing industry, as output growth eased to a standstill and inflows of new business increased only fractionally. On the inflation front, price pressures cooled noticeably as growth of demand for raw materials eased, with both input and output prices rising at the slowest rates in almost a year. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 21 June 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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UK manufacturing: PMI and CBI surveys compared
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| 21 June 2011 |
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| The CBI survey of UK manufacturing showed that expectations about output in three months’ time weakened in June. Despite this, the survey has been consistently more upbeat than the Markit PMI™ since March, and the recent downturn in the latter suggests that the CBI data will deteriorate further. This is based on comparisons showing that the PMI tends to move in advance of the CBI survey. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [20 - 24 June]: Flash PMI™ reports and central bank activity to update growth and policy outlook
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| 17 June 2011 |
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| A week that is likely to be dominated by events in the Eurozone, with European finance ministers meeting over the weekend to discuss Greece, also contains some key economic data and central bank activity. The Bank of England publishes the minutes from its June Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday, at which policy was unchanged, before the US Fed announces its policy decision, accompanied by a speech by Chairman Ben Bernanke. |
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UK labour market shows signs of fragility after robust start to the year
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| 15 June 2011 |
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| Latest official data provided more mixed news on the labour market. On the one hand, the broader ILO measure of unemployment declined by 88,000 to 2.43 million in the three months to April, the largest drop for more than a decade, and employment rose by 80,000 over the same period. On the other hand, more up-to-date information on the number of people claiming jobless benefit showed an increase of 19,600 to 1.49 million in May, the biggest rise for almost two years. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [13 - 17 June]: Inflation numbers to add clues to central bank policy
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| 10 June 2011 |
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| The week provides central banks in the US, UK and China with a wealth of new data to chew on in policy ruminations. The UK sees the publication of inflation, retail sales and labour market data, while the US reports inflation and industrial production numbers. China also publishes its regular ‘data dump’, which will add clues to whether recent policy tightening has had the desired effect on domestic demand and prices, and whether further efforts will be required to cool the economy. |
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ECB flags-up rate hike in July while US and UK rates remain on hold
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| 09 June 2011 |
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| The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all left policy unchanged at their May meetings, as anticipated. However, the ECB looks set to hike rates again in July. The future direction of rates in all three cases depends on whether the current soft patch in economic growth proves transitory |
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Global economic growth stays in low gear in May
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| 09 June 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, rose in May from the 21-month low seen in April. But the upturn was only very modest and signalled an historically weak rate of worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just over 2%. |
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EU sectors: Sharp slowdown in growth led by manufacturers
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| 07 June 2011 |
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| European Union PMI detailed sector data signalled a widespread slowdown in output growth in May. Out of 22 sectors covered, 14 registered weaker growth rates, while three posted outright declines in business activity compared with the previous month. Manufacturing sectors registered notably sharp deteriorations in output growth, including metals, chemicals, electronics and autos. |
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Two-speed Eurozone recovery downshifts to lower gear in May
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| 03 June 2011 |
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| At 55.8 in May, down from 57.8 in April, the Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to a five-month low. Rates of growth eased in all of the nations where PMI data for both manufacturing and services are available. The expansion also remained two-speed, with France and Germany leading the recovery. In contrast, Italy, Spain and Ireland drifted closer to stagnation. |
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UK PMI™ surveys point to weaker growth and falling price pressures
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| 03 June 2011 |
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| The three Markit/CIPS UK PMI™ surveys collectively signalled a slowing in the rate of economic growth for the second month running in May, taking the rate of expansion down to the weakest since heavy snowfall caused a near-stagnation of growth in December. The data suggest the economy could struggle to expand by more than 0.3% in the second quarter. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [06 - 10 June]: European central bank meetings to provide monetary policy guidance
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| 03 June 2011 |
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| European monetary policy comes under the spotlight with announcements due by the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. Neither are expected to raise interest rates but both meetings will be watched closely for signs of whether recent weak economic data have led to more dovish stances. |
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Global economic growth improves in May, as faster expansion in services offsets slowdown in manufacturing
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| 03 June 2011 |
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| May PMI™ data signal a slight improvement in the rate of expansion of the global private sector economy. The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index posted 52.6, up from April's 21-month low of 51.8. |
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Japanese private sector activity decreased at a much slower rate in May
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| 03 June 2011 |
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| May data pointed to a sharp easing in the rate of decline in Japanese service sector activity. Meanwhile, earlier survey data pointed to a welcome rebound in manufacturing, with the index tracking output rising strongly to signal growth for the first time in three months. Consequently, the overall rate of decline across both sectors slowed substantially. |
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Activity growth in China quickens to sharpest in four months
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| 03 June 2011 |
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| Growth of activity across Chinese manufacturing and services accelerated to a four-month high in May. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted HSBC Composite Output Index posting 52.8, up from 51.7 in April. The improvement reflected a stronger rise in services activity, while manufacturing output growth eased for the second successive month to only a marginal rate. |
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New RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI™
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| 02 June 2011 |
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| Royal Bank of Canada, in association with Markit and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada, today launched the monthly RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™, a comprehensive and early indicator of trends in the Canadian manufacturing sector. The latest survey found weaker expansion of both output and new orders in May, but a solid rise in employment. |
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Global manufacturing sector cools further in May
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| 01 June 2011 |
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| At 52.9 in May, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ fell for the third month running to reach its lowest level since September 2010. Although the headline index remained above the neutral 50.0 mark for the twenty-third successive month, the rate of growth was below the average for this period. Rates of expansion eased for manufacturing output, new orders, new export orders and employment. |
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Japan's manufacturing recovery on track as supply chain pressures ease
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| 31 May 2011 |
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| PMI™ survey data pointed to a welcome rebound in Japanese manufacturing activity during May, with the survey’s Output Index soaring 17 points to signal growth for the first time in three months. The index had slumped sharply in March before dipping to a 25-month low in April. Official data subsequently showed a record fall in manufacturing production in March. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [30 May – 03 June]: PMI™ data to highlight global business trends in May
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| 27 May 2011 |
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PMI™ surveys from around the world will provide insight into the health of the global economy in May. The week also sees the release of three of the world’s most market-moving economic indicators: the ISM PMI reports for the US and US non-farm payrolls. Meanwhile, with a July rate hike in the offing, the flash inflation estimate for the Eurozone will be watched closely.
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China’s manufacturing sector loses further growth momentum in May
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| 23 May 2011 |
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| PMI survey data released today show that China’s manufacturing economy grew at its slowest rate for ten months in May. Output rose only marginally, as new order growth cooled and new export business fell for the first time in three months. On the prices front, input cost inflation moderated to a nine-month low, which in turn contributed to a slower increase in charges at the factory gate. |
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Eurozone growth slips to seven month low in May, but price pressures ease
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| 23 May 2011 |
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| The Markit Flash Eurozone Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell to 55.4 in May to signal the weakest rate of growth in manufacturing and services for seven months. Moreover, the deceleration was the steepest since November 2008. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [23-27 May]: Flash PMIs will provide the first insight into business conditions in May
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| 20 May 2011 |
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| Flash PMIs for the Eurozone should act as a good guide to how the economy is performing in Q2. Meanwhile, the China Flash PMI will highlight recent price, growth and trade trends, followed by Japanese trade data later in the week. Second estimates of GDP for the US, Germany and UK are not expected to show major revisions, but will provide important extra detail. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 19 May 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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Official data confirm that Japan moved back into recession in Q1
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| 19 May 2011 |
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| Japan’s economy shrank at a quarterly rate of 0.9% in Q1 2011, tipping the country back into recession as the earthquake and tsunami of March 11 weighed heavily on domestic consumption and companies reduced their inventories amid widespread disruption to the supply chain. However, after estimating for survivorship bias in March, the Manufacturing PMI suggests that the economy may have contracted at an even sharper rate than indicated by the Q1 preliminary estimate. |
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Further fall in UK unemployment, but labour market conditions remain fragile
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| 18 May 2011 |
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| There were more mixed signals from the official UK labour market data, as claimant count unemployment rose but the ILO measure showed falling joblessness. The general message seems to be one of an improving – albeit still fragile – labour market. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [16-20 May]: UK economy in the limelight
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| 13 May 2011 |
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| UK inflation, labour market and retail sales data are all published, as well as the Bank of England MPC Minutes. US industrial production data for April will provide a glimpse into Q2 activity, while the Eurozone sees the release of final consumer price inflation and trade figures. Preliminary GDP numbers are likely to show that Japan entered technical recession in Q1. |
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Eurozone GDP rebounds in Q1 with lop-sided growth surge
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| 13 May 2011 |
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| Our analysis of Eurozone PMI data on 24 March estimated that the survey was “consistent with GDP rising 0.8%” in Q1. We noted that “Germany continued to lead the pack in Q1, expanding by possibly as much as 1.5%”. These predictions proved accurate according to preliminary estimates of GDP. However, like the surveys, the official data also highlight the lop-sided nature of the recovery. |
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Global price pressures ease to four-month low
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| 11 May 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit from national business surveys of manufacturing and service sector business conditions, showed input costs continuing to rise at a steep pace in April. However, the rate of increase slowed for the second month running to show the weakest increase in costs since last December. |
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UK consumer spending jumps in April but fundamentals have not improved
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| 10 May 2011 |
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| Warm weather, an extra bank holiday and the timing of Easter all encouraged the UK consumer to spend in April. The Visa Europe: UK Expenditure Index, published earlier this week, showed a 3.6% year-on-year increase in consumer spending in April. That took the three-month average rate of increase up to 2.1% from a paltry 0.7% in March and the declines earlier in the year. |
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EU sector data signalled broad-based easing in growth and price pressures in April
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| 10 May 2011 |
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| The latest European Union PMI sector data showed that rates of expansion slowed in 12 sectors in April, but that business-facing manufacturers typically proved the most resilient. The latest detailed data also signalled that input prices rose at slower rates in most areas at the start of Q2, but that cost pressures nevertheless remained elevated in almost all sectors covered. |
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EU auto makers suffer from combination of rising price pressures, supply chain delays and weaker sales growth
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| 10 May 2011 |
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| Detailed EU sector PMI data showed that automobiles & parts saw the sharpest acceleration of input cost inflation of all sectors covered in April, and an overall rate that was the second-highest since the series began in 1998. Autos firms also suffered the second-greatest extent of supply chain delays of all sectors, in part linked to disruptions emanating from the Japanese earthquake of 11 March. |
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Global growth at 21-month low in April
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| 09 May 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, indicated the weakest growth of the global economy since the recovery began in August 2009. Although much of the deterioration could be linked to the Japanese earthquake, the pace of expansion also slowed outside of Japan. A further easing in new order growth meanwhile suggests that the global economic growth rate could cool further in coming months. |
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Week ahead economic calendar [9-13 May]: Central bank reports and European growth data to help guide policy outlook
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| 06 May 2011 |
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The Bank of England publishes its quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, which is likely to show a downgrading of both economic growth and inflation forecasts. Meanwhile, China’s monthly data dump will be eyed for signs that recent policy tightening measures are having an impact. The week draws to a close with the publication of preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone, including estimates for Germany, France and Italy. We expect the single currency area to have rebounded from the slowdown seen late last year and grown 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. |
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UK PMI surveys point to sharp growth slowdown in April
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| 05 May 2011 |
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| The April UK PMIs indicated the largest loss of momentum seen since the Lehmans collapse in late-2008. However, a myriad of factors is causing an unusually high degree of uncertainty in gauging the strength of growth in Q2. These include the performance of construction, signs of manufacturing order book growth slowing rapidly, government spending cuts, unusual weather and public holidays. |
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ECB poised to hike rates in July, while US and UK look set to hold until 2012
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| 05 May 2011 |
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| The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all left policy unchanged at their April/May meetings, as anticipated by most analysts. However, while the ECB looks set to hike rates again in the summer, no change is likely until later this year, or even early next year, in the US or UK. |
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Eurozone starts second quarter on solid footing
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| 04 May 2011 |
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| The Eurozone Composite Output Index registered 57.8 in April, up slightly from 57.6 in March. Although the index remained below February’s four-and-a-half year high of 58.2, the April reading has been exceeded only once since July 2006. Manufacturing again led the upturn, while the service sector saw a weaker rate of increase than in March. |
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UK manufacturing expansion slowed further in April
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| 03 May 2011 |
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| The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low of 54.6 in April, down from a revised reading of 56.7 in March and well below January’s survey-record high. Manufacturers reported further expansions in both production and new orders, albeit at weaker rates. Weaker growth of new business was centred on the domestic market, as growth of new export orders gathered pace. |
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Smaller manufacturers underperform in UK economic revival
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| 03 May 2011 |
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| Markit’s UK Manufacturing PMI data show that smaller companies have underperformed relative to larger manufacturers in the recovery to date. Although smaller firms saw output rise at the fastest rate since September 1994 when the sector was rebounding sharply out of the financial crisis in March of last year, small firms have since seen slower growth than medium- and large-sized companies. |
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Global manufacturing PMI at five-month low in April
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| 03 May 2011 |
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| April saw growth of the global manufacturing sector cool further from the booming rates of expansion seen at the start of the year. At 55.0 in April, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell for the second successive month to its lowest level since last November. |
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Germany leads Eurozone manufacturing’s best start to the year since 2000, but Greece contracts and Spain slides towards stagnation
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| 02 May 2011 |
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| The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was boosted by output and new orders both rising slightly faster than indicated by earlier flash estimates. Looking at the PMI data by country, Germany, the Netherlands and France led the national rankings. Greece was the only nation to report a contraction, although Spain slipped closer to stagnation. |
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Chinese manufacturing output growth slows to nine-month low in April.
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| 29 April 2011 |
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| April’s HSBC China Manufacturing PMI survey pointed to relatively lacklustre growth of new business and a slower expansion in manufacturing production. Despite this, firms added to their workforce numbers at the fastest rate since last December. Meanwhile, companies continued to reduce their stocks of purchases, partly in an attempt to mitigate against delays in the supply chain. |
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Japan Manufacturing PMI™ hits two-year low in April, though even larger drop in output signalled after estimating for survivorship bias
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| 28 April 2011 |
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| The PMI showed ongoing disruption to the manufacturing sector in April following the 11 March earthquake. After estimating for non-responding companies, the data show that the rate of decline in the past two months has exceeded that seen in the aftermath of the US terrorist attacks in 2001. Falling production comes as no surprise. The uncertainty relates to the speed with which the economy can rebound. A return to job shedding suggests that firms are worried about order books and cautious about their ability to rebuild production as supply shortages hit a record high. |
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UK economy shows feeble rebound in Q1 as construction slumps
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| 27 April 2011 |
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| According to initial official estimates of gross domestic product, a surprise fall in Q4 2010 has been followed by a modest 0.5% rebound in Q1. The main area of weakness is construction, which contracted by a startling 4.7%. We find this hard to reconcile with the survey evidence, however, and maintain our belief that the sector probably rebounded from the bad weather at the end of last year. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 26 April 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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GDP and inflation data to provide central bank policy insights in the week commencing 15 April
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| 21 April 2011 |
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| A data-heavy week sees key GDP and inflation releases, with UK GDP numbers published on Wednesday likely to show a rebound in economic growth, but we would not be surprised if expansion was as weak as 0.3% or as strong as 0.8%. US GDP figures are published on Thursday, with growth expected to have slowed but the reading could well understate the current strong pace of growth momentum. Eurozone inflation data may add to calls for a further hike in rates by the ECB, while the Bank of Japan and the Fed will almost certainly keep their policy rates on hold. |
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EU: Stronger services growth offsets manufacturing slowdown
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| 08 April 2011 |
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| The latest EU sector PMI data provide further clues as to the key growth drivers at the end of Q1. The March data showed further strong output growth in the leading manufacturing sectors, despite the pace easing from recent highs. Other notable trends included faster growth from business-facing service sectors and the strongest rise in banking activity since the eve of the credit crunch. |
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Global growth slows sharply as US cools and Japan contracts
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| 07 April 2011 |
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| March PMI data signalled a sharp slowdown in the rate of expansion of the global economy, mainly reflecting a marked contraction in Japan following the Tohoku earthquake and a significant easing in the main pillar of recent growth, the US. |
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German output surges higher following robust growth of new orders
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| 07 April 2011 |
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| Buoyant growth of manufacturing output in February, a 1.4% jump in production compared to January, followed similarly upbeat data earlier this week showing solid growth of new orders. The latter rose 2.4% in February, building on a 3.1% increase in January. |
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ECB is first G4 central bank to hike interest rates
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| 07 April 2011 |
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| The European Central Bank has become the first of the G4 central banks to start normalising policy since rates were cut to record lows during the financial crisis, hiking its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The Bank of England decided to hold rates at 0.5% at its April meeting, while US and Japanese policy rates were left unchanged at 0.25% and zero respectively. |
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Emerging market growth stays firm in Q1, while cost inflation soars to highest since Q2 2008
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| 07 April 2011 |
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| The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a quarterly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, showed that emerging market growth eased slightly in the first quarter of 2011. The index dipped from a figure of 55.7 to 55.0, but was broadly in line with the long-run series average of 54.9. The slight moderation in emerging market growth reflected slower expansions in services and manufacturing, with growth in the former hitting a near two-year low. Manufacturers recorded a faster rate of expansion than service providers for the second quarter in succession. |
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UK: Manufacturing uncertainty and consumer woes
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| 06 April 2011 |
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| The manufacturing recovery stalled in February, according to official figures. While the less volatile PMI suggests that underlying momentum is stronger, the official data will provide ammunition for the doves at the Bank of England, coming on the same day that data from Visa and Markit indicate that the consumer is being squeezed by falling real incomes, tax hikes and government cuts. |
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Service sector continues to hold back Russian economic growth
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| 05 April 2011 |
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| The latest Russian services PMI data published by HSBC and Markit failed to show strengthening momentum in the sector, after earlier manufacturing data signalled the best overall improvement in business conditions in the goods-producing sector since August 2006. PMI data for Q1 pictured a solid rate of growth, but Russia remains the weakest-growing of the so-called BRIC group. |
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UK PMIs put economic growth at 13-month high in March
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| 05 April 2011 |
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| The PMI surveys indicated a gathering in the rate of economic growth in March, pointing to a strong economic rebound in the first quarter. The latest reading will add to pressure for the Bank of England to hike interest rates, but the case is not straightforward as the surveys also suggest that growth could weaken in the coming months. |
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Growth of UK service sector accelerated in March to the fastest pace in over a year
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| 05 April 2011 |
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| UK service sector activity growth surged in March to its strongest for thirteen months, as companies benefited from improved business conditions, higher sales and increased enquiries. Capacity levels were tested, leading to a slight rise in employment for the first time in nine months. However, optimism regarding future activity was slightly down since the previous month. |
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Pace of Eurozone recovery eased in March but held close to four-and-a-half year high. National divergences widened.
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| 05 April 2011 |
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| The final Eurozone PMI data for March rounded off a solid first quarter, consistent with GDP rising by 0.8% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Job creation also hit a new post-recession high in Q1 as companies looked to expand capacity. National growth divergences widened, however, as domestic demand in the periphery continued to be affected by austerity measures and political uncertainty.
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Japan: Private sector activity fell at the sharpest rate in two years amid severe disruption caused by Tohoku earthquake
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| 05 April 2011 |
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| PMI survey data pointed to a marked decline in Japanese service sector activity during March, mainly reflecting extensive disruption caused by the Tohoku earthquake. As a result, firms were the most pessimistic about the one-year business outlook since March 2009. |
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US Manufacturing PMI slips from near-record peak due to slower growth of new orders. But output and employment continue to surge higher.
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| 01 April 2011 |
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| US manufacturing continued to boom in March. The headline PMI eased only slightly from the post-recession high seen in February and the survey's Output Index, which correlates well with industrial production, rose to show the strongest growth for over seven years. The index is consistent with manufacturing production rising by 3% on a 3m/3m basis in March, and suggests that the sector will have provided a strong contribution to GDP growth in Q1. |
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Global manufacturing growth slips in March from near-record high.
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| 01 April 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global PMI for manufacturing showed the largest points fall for nine months in March, with the index easing to a three-month low of 55.8 from February’s near record high of 57.4 (the record is 57.9). The decline was led by deteriorations in the survey’s output and new orders indices. |
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Japan manufacturing PMI suffers record fall in March
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| 31 March 2011 |
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| A record fall in the Japanese manufacturing PMI for March is consistent with production falling by approximately 7% on a 3-month on 3-month basis and raises the possibility of a slide back into recession. Contraction is also likely in Q2 due to the fact that the crisis is ongoing and the impact on supply chains, which suffered the record delays in March. However, growth could strengthen substantially in the second half of the year. This not only reflects reconstruction, but also reflects the improving trade situation before the quake struck. Manufacturers had been taking on staff at an increased rate in March, anticipating further order book growth. |
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Official data confirm January rebound in UK services output, pointing to the possibility of firm GDP growth in Q1
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| 30 March 2011 |
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| Latest data from the UK Office for National Statistics indicated a strong recovery of service sector activity in January, suggesting that GDP may have risen strongly in Q1 following the dismal 0.5% contraction seen in the final quarter of last year. |
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Eurozone GDP set to rebound in Q1
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| 24 March 2011 |
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| Markit's Flash Eurozone PMI remained elevated in March, dipping only slightly from February's four-and-a-half year high. The latest data round off the strongest quarter since Q3 2006 and are consistent with GDP rising by 0.8%, well above the disappointing 0.3% increase seen in the final quarter of last year. |
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French rebound clouded by rising prices and weak job creation
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| 24 March 2011 |
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| Buoyant flash PMI data for March indicate that the French economy expanded strongly in Q1, but also point to rising price pressures and disappointing job creation. Rising costs may be discouraging recruitment as firms seek to boost productivity and protect profit margins, but this may be about to change. |
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German GDP growth set to rebound strongly in Q1
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| 24 March 2011 |
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| Markit’s flash PMI data for March indicate that growth momentum has picked up sharply in Germany since the slowdown seen late last year. The data are roughly consistent with GDP rising by as much as 1.5% in Q1, which is almost double the 0.8% increase signalled by PMI data for the Eurozone as a whole in the first quarter of 2011. |
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Japan’s earthquake set to hit already stretched supply chains, with record delays having already been reported by EU auto makers in February.
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| 21 March 2011 |
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| The Japanese disaster has raised concerns about global supply chains, especially in relation to shortages of auto parts and electronic components. PMI survey data show that these anticipated delays are set to exacerbate an already serious situation in Europe, with purchasing managers there reporting near-record supply chain delays in February even before the earthquake and tsunami struck. |
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Economic diary for week commencing 21 March 2011
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| 18 March 2011 |
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| A week likely to be dominated by ongoing events in Japan and the Middle East also contains a busy economic diary, starting with the release of Markit’s household finance survey, which will provide insight into consumer sentiment in the lead up to the UK Budget on Wednesday. The Bank of England minutes, published mid-week, meanwhile will be eyed for signs of Monetary Policy Committee members becoming increasingly hawkish. Markit’s Flash PMIs will provide an early snapshot of business conditions in the Eurozone and China when data are released on Thursday. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 18 March 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for 2011. |
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Eurozone trade deficit widens but export growth accelerates. Further boost expected for February but outlook becomes more uncertain
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| 18 March 2011 |
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| A larger than expected widening of the Eurozone trade deficit in January should not distract from some very encouraging news on exports. PMI data indicate that export growth continued to gather momentum in February, but the outlook for trade has become more uncertain due to recent events in Japan and the implications for both economic growth and supply chain disruptions. |
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UK: Business outlook survey tracks improved sentiment at manufacturers and service providers
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| 14 March 2011 |
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| February survey data from KPMG and Markit signalled an improvement in sentiment regarding business prospects in the UK manufacturing and service sectors over the next twelve months. However, a sharp projected rise in input costs is expected to restrict profit growth in both sectors. |
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Global price pressures: not just food and oil
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| 11 March 2011 |
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| The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – compiled by Markit – signalled a further sharp acceleration of input price inflation in February, with prices rising at the fastest rate since July 2008. Although it has been widely reported that cost inflation reflects higher commodity, food and energy prices, PMI survey data provide strong evidence that rising cost pressures have in part been driven by supply chain factors. |
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Global growth at near five-year high in February
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| 10 March 2011 |
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| Fast and accelerating global growth was recorded by the PMIs in February, but national divergences are still evident. US policies to boost growth appear to be raising domestic demand and supporting exports. In contrast, Chinese policy tightening to fight inflation and deficit-fighting measures in the Eurozone periphery and the UK are showing signs of cooling domestic demand in those economies. |
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EU: Recovery broadening across industries, but price pressures surge
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| 08 March 2011 |
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| EU sector data signalled that manufacturers continued to lead the recovery, but many other sectors saw faster growth. Meanwhile, the intensification of inflationary pressures was a key theme. Ten sectors posted record increases in input prices, while seven signalled a record increase in output prices. This will provide further ammunition to calls for rate hikes at the ECB and Bank of England. |
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Global PMI: Employment growth hits three-and-a-half year high in February
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| 07 March 2011 |
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| The global economy moved up a gear at the start of 2011, generating a welcome upturn in developed world job creation. Initially dependent upon manufacturing, labour market recoveries are also spreading to the service sector, adding to hopes that recoveries are becoming more self-sustaining. |
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Economic calendar for week commencing 7 March
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| 04 March 2011 |
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| The Bank of England interest rate announcement on Thursday is set to be the highlight of the week. China is also provisionally scheduled to release a raft of macroeconomic data, with inflation figures the most keenly anticipated. Meanwhile, the US sees consumer confidence and retail data releases, culminating in the University of Michigan survey on Friday. |
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UK economy expands at 0.4% quarterly rate in February, 0.5% in Q1
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| 03 March 2011 |
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| UK PMI surveys pointed to further robust growth in February, suggesting gross domestic product will have recovered in Q1 from the decline seen in the final quarter of last year. However, the rebound flatters the rate of expansion and the underlying trend is likely to have remained weak as fragile consumer demand offsets manufacturing expansion. |
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Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
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| 03 March 2011 |
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| Eurozone growth in February was the highest since July 2006, led by marked expansions in Germany and France. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure continued to build, as input costs and output prices rose at faster rates. |
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Pressure mounts for early euro rate hike
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| 03 March 2011 |
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| The ECB kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today, as expected. However, President Trichet warned that the risk of higher inflation has moved on the upside since the January and February meetings, and that the ECB is prepared to change policy in a "firm and timely manner". An increase in rates as soon as next month was cited as "possible". The case for an early hike in interest has strengthened due to three key factors: strong growth, higher price pressures, and signs of life in the periphery. |
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Global exports revive, but growth is skewed towards the US and Europe
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| 02 March 2011 |
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| Global trade flows have accelerated again, having slowed in the second half of last year. The JPMorgan Global PMI showed manufacturing exports growing at the fastest rate since May 2010 in February. This bodes well for the worldwide economic recovery, but national variations have widened. |
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HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
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| 01 March 2011 |
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| PMI survey data signalled that Chinese manufacturing operating conditions continued to improve in February, albeit at a markedly reduced rate. Output rose only modestly, as new business growth slowed. Meanwhile, companies continued to pass on strong cost inflation to clients through increased factory gate charges. |
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Markit / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
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| 01 March 2011 |
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| The UK manufacturing sector maintained its strong start to 2011, resulting in a further survey- record rate of job creation. Meanwhile, output prices rose at the second-fastest pace in the survey history. |
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Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
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| 01 March 2011 |
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| The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was at a near 11-year peak in February. Growth was still led by Germany, but renewed vigour was also exhibited by ‘peripheral’ nations. Input costs rose at record rates in almost all nations, however, with Greece and Ireland the only exceptions. |
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Latest worldwide PMI release dates
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| 21 February 2011 |
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| PMI release dates for March and April 2011. |
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Slowdown in UK employee earnings growth signals absence of ‘second round’ inflation effects
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| 16 February 2011 |
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| Official data today show a drop in employee earnings growth. This is arguably more important than yesterday's rise in headline inflation as far as the Bank of England's policy making is concerned. The rise in consumer price inflation was expected, while slower average earnings growth is a surprise and suggests that the longer-term inflation outlook is even more benign than previously expected. |
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Bad weather subdued Eurozone growth in Q4
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| 15 February 2011 |
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| Eurozone economic growth failed to accelerate, as many had expected, towards the end of last year. GDP growth was unchanged in Q4 on the sluggish 0.3% quarterly rate of increase seen in Q3. Growth disappointed in Germany, France and Italy, with GDP rising 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Mixed signals came from the periphery; while Spain grew 0.2%, Portugal slid back into contraction, with GDP dropping 0.3%, and Greece remained firmly in recession, posting a 1.4% quarterly decline. |
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Signs of export growth in Eurozone periphery, but domestic demand remains subdued
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| 11 February 2011 |
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| The focus of financial markets has shifted in recent weeks away from the troubles in the Eurozone periphery to concerns over the political turmoil engulfing Egypt and the surrounding region. At first glance, the latest PMI readings suggest that the ‘peripheral’ nations (Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain) are, in some cases, starting to reap the benefits of a global recovery. Manufacturing production rose strongly in Italy and Ireland in January, driven principally by strong export orders. Support from the ECB, in the form of bond purchases, has also been welcomed. |
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Global economic growth hits post-crisis high, led by developed markets
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| 11 February 2011 |
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| January saw global economic growth continue to recover strongly from the slowdown seen in the third quarter of last year. However, while fears of double-dip recessions have eased, worries about inflation have intensified, especially in emerging nations. |
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Global manufacturing price pressures continue to build but longer term inflation outlook remains uncertain
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| 10 February 2011 |
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| The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – compiled by Markit – showed that input cost inflation rose to a two-and-a-half year high in January. Price rises were reported for a wide variety of raw materials, including many agricultural commodities, fuels and metals. |
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High UK inflation showing little sign of feeding through to pay rates
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| 10 February 2011 |
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| The Bank of England left policy unchanged after its February meeting. It is likely that the debate heated up further from the January meeting, with increased pressure from some members of the Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates and shore up the Bank's inflation fighting credibility. However, this looks to have been the most appropriate outcome given the data that are currently available. |
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China’s monetary tightening starts to bite
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| 09 February 2011 |
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| HSBC PMI survey data, compiled by Markit, signalled that China’s private sector economy continued to expand at a strong pace at the start of 2011. However, growth eased further from October’s peak as the authorities continued to tighten monetary policy in an attempt to rein in inflation and mop up excess liquidity. |
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Developed world employment growth highest for over three years
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| 09 February 2011 |
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| The global economy moved up a gear at the start of 2011, generating a welcome upturn in developed world job creation. Initially dependent upon manufacturing, labour market recoveries are also spreading to the service sector, adding to hopes that recoveries are becoming more self-sustaining. |
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Sector PMIs reveal ongoing lop-sided EU recovery
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| 08 February 2011 |
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| The latest batch of detailed EU sector PMI data from Markit showed a notable improvement in growth rates across many industry sectors in January. However, the latest data also highlighted surging cost pressures. |
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UK PMIs rebound to signal strongest growth for eight months in January
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| 03 February 2011 |
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| The Markit/CIPS PMIs showed a rebound in activity in January, raising hopes that the economy will return to expansion in Q1, having posted a surprise 0.5% contraction in the final quarter of last year. |
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Record breaking start to 2011 signals manufacturing remains a leading light for UK economy
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| 01 February 2011 |
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| PMI data signalled that the UK manufacturing sector made a spectacular start to 2011. Growth of both new orders and employment picked up sharply to the highest rates in the 19-year survey history, allowing manufacturers to ramp up production to the greatest extent since 1994. |
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Japanese recovery back on track after Q4 lull
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| 31 January 2011 |
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| PMI survey data indicate that Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to growth at the start of 2011, raising hopes that economic growth will resume in the first quarter. The economy is expected to have slipped back into contraction in the final quarter of last year. |
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Bad weather causes renewed contraction of UK economy
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| 25 January 2011 |
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| A surprisingly sharp fall in UK gross domestic product in Q4 (-0.5% compared to a 0.7% rise in the third quarter, according to the preliminary estimate) was even worse than the most pessimistic forecaster had anticipated. The decline was the first since 2009 Q3. |
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Strong Chinese GDP growth sparks overheating concern
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| 20 January 2011 |
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| Chinese economic growth accelerated to 9.8% y/y in Q4. This had been anticipated by the HSBC China Composite PMI, which averaged its highest quarterly reading since Q1 2010 when the economy grew 11.9% y/y. China’s strong end to 2010 will fuel fears of overheating and raise the likelihood of further monetary tightening. |
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Further signs of weakening UK labour market
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| 19 January 2011 |
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| Today’s UK labour market data presented another mixed bag of indicators, though on the whole presented a picture of a softening trend, with weak demand for staff from employers meaning pay growth stayed subdued. |
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Further evidence of Eurozone production surge, but national divergences have widened as periphery loses out to Eastern Europe
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| 14 January 2011 |
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| Eurozone production surged higher in November, supporting the upbeat picture from Markit’s PMIs. The PMIs also showed a further widening of national growth divergences in the single currency area. Manufacturing in the Eurozone periphery is struggling to reap the benefits of faster growth in Germany and emerging markets, with expansion well below that seen in Central and Eastern Europe. |
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Global economic growth resurgent at end of 2010
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| 13 January 2011 |
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| The worldwide PMI surveys suggested a sharp acceleration in global GDP growth to an annual rate of just over 3.5% at the end of 2010. The growth spurt will further calm any lingering fears of a double-dip recession. However, some signs of underlying weakness remain. Job creation is still subdued overall, while the resurgence in the global service sector has been overly reliant on the US. |
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Soaring commodity prices fuel inflation spike in December
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| 13 January 2011 |
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| Rising commodity prices are feeding through global supply chains, most notably driving a record (19-year high) rise in UK manufacturers’ input prices in December. Central banks in several emerging markets have already responded to rising price pressures with higher interest rates. With inflation already above target in the UK and the Eurozone, latest data have increased the chances of earlier than expected rate hikes in Europe. |
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PMI data signal greater likelihood of Eurozone rate hike compared to UK
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| 13 January 2011 |
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| The Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB) held policy rates steady at 0.5% and 1.0% respectively in January, despite inflation being above target in both regions. Past experience suggests the Bank of England will tolerate above-target inflation in the current environment. In contrast, the ECB has previously shown itself to be more eager to quash rising inflationary pressures. |
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UK manufacturing production up 0.6% in November
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| 13 January 2011 |
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| November data from the ONS reported a 0.4% monthly increase in industrial production, slightly below market expectations, but still an improvement on the marginal drop seen in the previous month. Manufacturing was the strongest performer within the sector, seeing a 0.6% increase, whereas mining and extraction was a drag on growth – reporting a 0.7% decline in output. |
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EU sectors: manufacturers continued to lead the recovery in December as bad weather hit services and construction
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| 10 January 2011 |
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| EU PMI data covering seven broad industry groups and 22 detailed sectors showed that heavy manufacturers remained the best performers in December, while recent heavy snow in Northern Europe affected activity in sectors such as construction and transport. Although January should see a rebound from the harsh weather, the data also show underlying weaknesses in consumer- and finance-related sectors. |
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Uptick in emerging market growth but inflation provides sting in the tail
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| 10 January 2011 |
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| The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI) for the fourth quarter of 2010 shows that economic growth in the emerging world accelerated at the end of last year following a temporary lull in the third quarter. Although not quite back to the highs recorded earlier in 2010, the Q4 reading of 55.7, up from 54.2 in the third quarter, confirms that the emerging nations continue to expand at a pace well ahead of the developed world. |
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German manufacturing output set to rebound after fall in November
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| 07 January 2011 |
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| Data from the Federal Statistics Office showed German industrial production falling 0.7% in November. Manufacturing output fell 0.6% and construction by 1.1%. As the official data are very volatile month-to-month, these declines should be treated with caution. Moreover, PMI data suggests growth has since picked up again. |
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Poor weather led to marginal fall in UK services activity during December. Cost pressures intensified.
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| 06 January 2011 |
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| Poor weather and snow impacted heavily on the UK service sector at the end of 2010. Both activity and new business were down marginally in December, and there were again reports that underlying trends remained subdued. This led to another month of job losses and also served to subdue business confidence. |
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PMI data signal near-stagnation of UK economy in December
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| 06 January 2011 |
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| The UK’s reliance on manufacturing as the driver of its economic recovery grew increasingly evident in December. Manufacturers finished the year with a bang, as growth of output accelerated on the back of surging exports. In contrast, services and construction slipped back into contraction, with activity levels declining for the first time since April 2009 and February 2010 respectively. |
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Growth of global economy at eight-month high in December
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| 06 January 2011 |
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| At 57.1 in December, up from 54.5 in November, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index rose to its highest level since April. Activity growth in the service sector outpaced the rate of expansion in manufacturing output for the second month running. |
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UK housing market starts 2011 on downward trend
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| 05 January 2011 |
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| The Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI showed a fall in housing sector activity for the fourth consecutive month in December. The rate of decline gathered pace to hit a 20-month high. The data suggest that the weakening in recent house price data has further to run. |
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Eurozone recovery remained on track but uneven at the end of 2010, as strong France-Germany core offset weakness elsewhere
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| 05 January 2011 |
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| At 55.5 in December, unchanged from November’s three-month high, the final Markit Eurozone Composite Output Index was above the earlier flash estimate of 55.0. Based on its historical relationship against official data, the headline index is consistent with Eurozone GDP rising at a quarterly rate of around 0.5% in the final three months of 2010. |
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UK investment spending surge loses momentum
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| 04 January 2011 |
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| National accounts data were revised to show a sharp rise in business investment spending in the third quarter of last year. But PMI data suggest that the surge has already waned (and possibly did not even occur in the first place), pointing to a less robust economic recovery than official data currently suggest. |
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